Fantasy Premier League: How to take advantage of the biggest upcoming fixture swings

Taking advantage of fixture swings is one of the most rewarding strategies in Fantasy Premier League.

Whether this be through your wildcard or your free transfers, jumping on players who have a good run of fixtures coming up and swapping them for those who have a bad stretch of games ahead can really help you rise in the rankings.

This approach is likely to be even more effective this season, due to the fact we can now save up to five free transfers. This means we don’t necessarily have to use our wildcard to target teams with good fixtures around the corner and means we can adopt more varied strategies.

It’s important to identify these runs early in the season, so you can tentatively plan and prepare for them. There are some good fixture swings in Gameweek 4 and Gameweek 6, which are popular wildcard windows, so we will look at the best teams and players for these swings, who you can look to bring in on your wildcard or via free transfers.

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The risk-vs-reward equation

There is sometimes a big risk-vs-reward ratio with making transfers based on fixture swings as this may mean transferring out perfectly fine premium assets for other ones who have better-looking games coming up. There is always a chance that doing so backfires but, generally, over the long run, this should pay off as you are only increasing your chances of points by targeting those more attractive matches.

It may sound obvious but, historically, players do tend to score more points in the kinder fixtures and do worse in tougher ones, regardless of form — that even goes for the likes of Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and Erling Haaland (£15.1m).

The teams and players to target

Aston Villa

Villa are heading into one of the best fixture runs for a while.

They have home games against Everton, Wolves, Manchester United and Bournemouth in their next seven outings, and also play two of the promoted sides in Ipswich and Leicester.

Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) and Morgan Rogers (£5.1m) are the best assets to target among their attacking players, although the former has been taken off early in Villa’s first two games of the season, so you might want to wait another week on him. Everton at home looks like a good entry point, as you can give Watkins one more match to assess his minutes situation and those with Alexander Isak (£8.5m) can move easily to him, as the Newcastle forward has a run of Wolves (A), Fulham (A) and Manchester City (H) starting in Gameweek 4.

Another entry point is Gameweek 5, by selling Haaland. Manchester City play Arsenal (H) and Newcastle (A) back to back, so if you are planning a wildcard in Gameweek 8, then this is a short-term risk play you can take on. This will also allow you to bring in Liverpool’s Salah with the money saved.

Rogers can be bought in at any point due to his price, and especially if he is going to be your eighth attacker. His Villa team-mate Leon Bailey (£6.5m) is a good shout too, although I think his minutes will be managed a lot more when the Champions League starts between Gameweeks 4 and 5.

I would definitely be looking at Villa defenders too, with Ezri Konsa (£4.5m) or Pau Torres (£4.5m) the most nailed-on starters. Kosta Nedeljkovic (£4.0m) might be a fine pick as he could start in the absence of Matty Cash (£4.5m), who injured his hamstring against Arsenal last gameweek and is expected to be out for a month.

Pau Torres is a solid option if you’re considering investing in Aston Villa’s defence (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Chelsea

Enzo Maresca’s side have a fantastic run coming up, too.

With the vast array of attackers Chelsea have, the only option I would be looking at for them is Cole Palmer (£10.5m), who is the only one who looks truly nailed on to start. He is an elite FPL asset and a move to him from someone like Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) or Tottenham’s Son Heung-min (£10.0m) in Gameweek 3 or 4 might well be the play.

Arsenal have Spurs (A) and Manchester City (A) in Gameweeks 4 and 5 respectively, and then Liverpool (H) in Gameweek 9. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s only tough game from an attacking point of view from now until Gameweek 9 is Liverpool (A) in Gameweek 8.

If you aren’t able to afford Palmer, Noni Madueke (£6.5m) is probably the next-best Chelsea attacker. With his hat-trick last gameweek, he should be safe to start the foreseeable games but you should expect reduced minutes. He did play the 90 minutes of that 6-2 win against Wolves, but I wouldn’t expect this to continue.

I really wouldn’t be interested in the Chelsea defence despite the kind fixtures. I think there is better value elsewhere.

Liverpool

I would be looking to get as many Liverpool assets in as possible over the next few games. After they play Manchester United (A) in Gameweek 3, they come up against Nottingham Forest (H), Bournemouth (H), Wolves (A), Crystal Palace (A) and Chelsea (H).

That good run also coincides with Arsenal’s two tough fixtures, so Saka to Salah will be a popular move then — although this is likely to require at least two free transfers to complete if you are not wildcarding.

I would also prioritise Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) if you don’t own him and I like the double-up in defence with Andy Robertson (£6.0m). Liverpool look a lot more compact at the back under new head coach Arne Slot and both full-backs still have immense attacking threat.

Diogo Jota (£7.6m) and Luis Diaz (£7.5m) look good options at their prices but could be game-time risks with Darwin Nunez (£7.3m) and Cody Gakpo (£7.4m) waiting in the wings.

The ideal three for me would be Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson

Trent Alexander-Arnold remains a key Liverpool asset (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Fulham and Brighton

Fulham also have a nice run of fixtures, and the likes of Emile Smith Rowe (£5.6m), Antonee Robinson (£4.6m) and Rodrigo Muniz (£6.1m) all have the look of great-value enablers.

If you are looking to wildcard in Gameweek 6, Brighton assets look essential after Gameweek 3, as they play Ipswich (H) and Forest (H) in successive matches.

Joao Pedro (£5.5m) and Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) could be explosive for those two games and they are so cheap you don’t have to get rid of them on wildcard either, as they can act as your seventh and eighth attackers. Lewis Dunk (£4.5m) is a fine option and Brighton’s best defensive asset as he is nailed to start and carries some goal threat too.

Brighton have really impressed in the first two games under new head coach Fabian Hurzeler.

The teams with downturns in fixtures

Players at Tottenham, Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs are the ones who could be sacrificed if you are looking to jump on those with a good run coming.

Spurs’ next two are against Newcastle (A) and Arsenal (H) and Manchester United play Liverpool (H) this gameweek, so assets from these teams would be the immediate candidates. As detailed above, Arsenal have tough games in Gameweek 4 and 5, and City’s tricky fixtures are in Gameweek 5 and 6.

A lot will depend on your wildcard strategy and transfer plans, and with so many viable ways forward, it would be wise to look at where you can take advantage of the season’s fixture swings without hampering your squad.

(Top photo: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)