The more things change, the more the national title picture stays the same in 2024. After a dream-dashing Week 13 across the sport, the four schools jockeying atop the odds table all season have decisively separated themselves from everyone else.
Ohio State’s dismantling of Indiana was the highest-profile contest of the week and boosted the Buckeyes from +320 to +275 on BetMGM, with Georgia slotting in next at +350 and then No. 1 Oregon at +400. Texas has bounced around the top four in futures odds all season, and currently sits at +450. From there it’s quite the gap.
2024-25 college football national title odds
Popular SEC long-odds picks Ole Miss and Alabama fell away thanks to upset losses, and Indiana’s shellacking in Columbus dispelled any notions of a Hollywood ending for the Hoosiers. The Crimson Tide remain on the board at +4000 (+750 last week) but with three losses, their only card to play with the committee is “remember when we pummeled Georgia in Week 5?”
Indiana fell from +2500 to +5000, but expect those odds to lengthen. If not for so many high-profile losses around them, the Hoosiers were at risk of getting edged out of the College Football Playoff altogether. As it stands, a Big Ten team with one loss to Ohio State should be safe, even if the rest of their schedule is soft.
Ole Miss went from +1100 to off the board, and Notre Dame took its slot ahead of Penn State, moving to +1400 after downing Army. The Fighting Irish have been dominant since their one loss and now have the shortest odds of anyone outside that clear top four. The Nittany Lions (+1800) have a favorable postseason path as they likely won’t play in the conference championship game and are in line to host their first-round matchup after (barely) escaping Minnesota.
Tennessee dodged the SEC culling with a win against UTEP, getting back to familiar territory at +2000. Miami remains on the fringe at +2500. There isn’t much faith SMU will get past the Canes in the ACC title game, with the Mustangs at +4000.
Kansas has single-handedly rearranged the Big 12 picture in the last three weeks, grim-reapering its way through Iowa State, BYU and Colorado. The Buffaloes were drawing enough interest last week to reach +5000 to win the national title, but plummeted to +20000 after the Jayhawks all but bounced them from the conference championship game. BYU’s two-week tumble sees the Cougars at +25000, tied with conference title hopeful Iowa State. Arizona State is now the betting favorite out of the conference with +8000 odds, but it’s still unclear where the Big 12 champ will be ranked when the dust settles. Currently, it looks like Boise State would receive the fourth bye with two more wins, including a Mountain West championship, but even that isn’t buying the Broncos any national title faith.
Not only were the Broncos leapfrogged by the Sun Devils, their title odds actually dipped from +10000 to +12500. They’re on track to play UNLV in the conference title game, and if someone were looking for an all-time glory play, the Rebels are the very last team on the board at +100000. A $10 bet on UNLV would net $10,000.
There are 21 teams listed on the board at BetMGM after the number of plausible contenders shrunk as a result of Saturday’s chaotic results. But for now, the safe money is where it always has been: on the SEC and Big Ten powerhouses that have held the top spots nearly all season long.
(Photo of Emeka Egbuka: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
