Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson have been in the kitchen cooking up some wins for you so you can pay for the turducken you put on layaway at Sam’s Butcher Shop.
GREENBERG (4-4 last week, 46-35 overall): I have some bad news. You might want to sit down. I did not take your advice Tuesday. I did not bet on the mighty Akron Zips against Toledo. I also didn’t take Buffalo over the not-so-mighty Kent State Golden Flashes, who finished off their winless season by getting blasted by the Bulls. I sat out the last night of #MACtion and I’m ashamed.
But we move on, thankful for another chance to win some bets. Thanksgiving is like the NFL’s version of MACtion but with more food.
So here are my Turkey Day picks:
Packers -3.5 over the Dolphins. It’s going to be Packers Weather at Lambeau Field. I’ll take the home favorites, though I liked it a lot better before the line jumped by a half-point.
Cowboys and Giants looks awful. As bad as the Cowboys are, they could absolutely roll over the even-more-dreadful Giants. But Drew Lock starting over Tommy Meatballs, which seems like it’s going to be the case, makes me nervous. I’ll take the over 37.
In our weekly predictions for Bears games, I went with the Lions winning, 34-17. The Bears defense has been trash — and are about to give up 200 rushing yards to the law firm of Gibbs & Montgomery — but the offense has picked up lately. So I’ll go with over 48.5.
For my contribution to our dinner, I’m cooking these turkey wings. I’ll let you know how they turn out.
JACKSON (4-5 last week, 43-45): The story of my season is that I told you to wait until Wednesday to publish this column, then guaranteed an Akron victory Tuesday night. But it never got published, so the loyal readers who believe that I’m a moron get to continue to be right! Happy holidays, everyone. I promise a couple obscure bowl winners.
I’ll start with the Lions -9.5. Do I love laying double digits? No, but I’ve seen the Bears a few times in recent weeks. There’s a real disparity here in talent and coaching, and considering the importance of Thanksgiving in Detroit and the momentum this Lions team has, I think it’s much more likely a three-score game than a three-point game.
I won’t chase too much else, but I tend to agree with you on the Cowboys.
On Friday at noon ET, I think you have to play under 39.5 in Miami (Ohio)-Bowling Green. The winner goes to the MAC title game and Miami wins games with defense and ball control. I don’t know that Miami wins — my MAC futures hope BG wins, actually — but Bowling Green star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. was injured last week. BG is understandably being coy about his status, but Fannin is one of the best players in the country. If he’s even limited, BG also will have to lean in to the run and punt strategy. I hesitate to call this a 50-star because a few big plays can ruin a low total game, but I think both teams envision 17 points being enough.
Oh, there’s another big game in Ohio this weekend? Lay the 21 on Ohio State. I know it’s a rivalry game, but how will Michigan score? Buckeyes to pull away and cover, just like last week. Toss in a first-quarter under 9.5, too.
GREENBERG: You forgot about another big game in Ohio: Ball State comes to Athens on Friday and the Bobcats need to win to get into the MAC championship. They’ll do that, but the 15.5-point spread seems a touch high, even though the Cardinals just got drilled by Bowling Green, have dropped three straight and fired their coach. I feel like I’d be pressing my luck taking the Bobcats to blow out teams every week. But OU has gone under the total three weeks in a row and with no students on campus, I foresee a drowsy game that goes under 52.5.
I have two more college totals to take: I was going to go with Mississippi State +26.5 in the Egg Bowl, but I think I’ll stick with under 61.5. This game hasn’t gone over since 2016 and I believe Ole Miss has only gone over the total once this season. (It was the game I took Arkansas to cover an 8-point spread and they lost by 32.)
And finally, the Corn Classic, Iowa-Nebraska. The Hawkeyes are 9-2 in totals this season and Nebraska has gone over two of its last three. Let’s see some points, over 39.5.
JACKSON: We have to play UTSA +7. Army just got smacked back to reality last week on national TV by Notre Dame. Next week, Army plays Tulane in the AAC title game. The week after that, Army plays Navy in the game that really matters. Where does UTSA fall on the scale of things that matter? Give me the points.
In the NFL, I want the Bengals -3 over the Steelers and under 44.5 in Tennessee-Washington after both teams played wild games last week. I lean towards Baltimore -3, but I’m not sure I want to jump in front of Saquon Barkley right now.
GREENBERG: I hate to be that Basic Bettor taking his team every week, but I like the Steelers +3 only because Mike Tomlin teams are, according to a tweet I found, 42-28-1 as road underdogs. (They’re 1-0 this season.) The four teams the Bengals have beaten this year are a combined 10-34. Do the math.
Last, I’ll go with Arizona +3.5 at Minnesota. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS as underdogs this season and they actually won four of those games. The Vikings are due for a letdown after playing Da Bears.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Jahmyr Gibbs: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
