DALLAS — On Sunday night, the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to the richest contract in baseball history — one that crushed the previous record set last year by Shohei Ohtani in present-day value by more than $300 million.
So what does this mean for New York’s payroll over, say, the next 15 seasons?
Well, get used to the luxury tax.
The Mets are not going to get under the luxury tax in 2025. I know, I know, it’s disappointing. Getting all the way under the $241 million threshold for the luxury tax was always unlikely this winter, and it was impossible to achieve if the Mets signed Soto.
They’re also not getting under the luxury tax for the rest of this collective bargaining agreement, which runs through the 2026 season. The only money set to come off the books after this season is for Starling Marte and Paul Blackburn. Edwin Díaz, Kodai Senga and Frankie Montas could potentially all come off the payroll as well, through opt-outs and player options. But Díaz’s and Montas’ options are toss-ups, Senga has almost no chance of pitching enough innings to trigger his opt-out, and the Mets would have to replace all three if they did depart.
As it stands, New York is slated to pay more than $200 million to eight players in 2026. The luxury tax threshold is $244 million for that season.
We don’t know yet what the tax will look like in the next CBA. Over the past four collective bargaining agreements, on average the first tax threshold has increased by about 5 percent in the first year of the new deal and 16 percent by the end of a presumed five-year compact. If those historic norms carry over, the tax threshold for 2027 would be around $257 million; the threshold for 2031 would be around $283 million.
The Mets right now have $175 million committed to their 2027 luxury tax payroll and $126 million committed in 2028 and 2029 (to Soto, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo).
However, the first threshold is not the only threshold to keep in mind. President of baseball operations David Stearns said in October that each threshold matters.
“I keep them all in my mind,” he said. “They all come with different penalties — financial, draft-pick compensation, potential international market spending capability. All of that is on my mind and will play a part in how aggressive we are in certain spaces.”
The third threshold, set at $281 million for 2025, matters most. It’s after that point that the Mets would have their first draft pick next July pushed back 10 spots, that they’d surrender money for the international amateur market and that they’d be paying an extra 95-cent tax on every dollar spent.
Could the Mets stay under that mark next season? Not if they plan to do most anything else this winter. New York has about $20 million to spend under that threshold and openings in the rotation, bullpen, corner infield and DH to fill. And you don’t sign Soto to go cheap in that many other spots on the diamond.
Again, the Mets would remain unlikely to dip under that threshold in 2026, as well.
The bottom line: The Mets handed out a record contract to a superstar in his prime. The payroll should be geared toward complementing that player as best as possible for the length of his prime, regardless of the taxes.
(Top photo of David Stearns: Morry Gash / Associated Press)
