It still seems vaguely inconceivable but, as things stand, Gary O’Neil will still be in charge when Wolverhampton Wanderers face Ipswich Town at Molineux on Saturday.
O’Neil’s position is close to untenable and the clash with Kieran McKenna’s side promises to make for an uncomfortable, hostile and potentially toxic afternoon. But right now, it seems likely that the man who has won just three of his last 25 Premier League games in charge will be given at least one more game to add to the tally.
There are several reasons why a manager for whom support appears unsustainable will stay in the hot seat, one of which is that Wolves still believe he is a real coaching talent.
Last season, O’Neil took over four days before the opening game. He led a club in a state of turmoil clear of relegation worries for most of the season, to the FA Cup quarter-finals and memorable doubles over Chelsea and Tottenham and a win over Manchester City. This did not happen by accident.
Wolves officials, who like all of those people spoken to for this article did so under the condition of anonymity to protect relationships, believe the skills that helped bring about those results will ensure O’Neil has a long and successful career in management, irrespective of his current troubles.
And despite a demoralising nine months since the quarter-final defeat to Coventry City, he largely retains the support of his senior players, most of whom are keen to see him continue.
Wolves are conscious of that support and of the mitigating factors that have made O’Neil’s life harder — the injury crisis that robbed him of his three first-choice forwards and key defender Craig Dawson for the end of last season, the brutal fixture list that almost guaranteed a poor start to this one and the failure in each of his two transfer windows to deliver on his priorities.
O’Neil during Monday’s game against West Ham (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Indeed, the Wolves hierarchy is not apportioning blame to O’Neil for this season’s struggles and is working instead to support him. They want to address underlying issues such as their imbalanced squad, which is severely lacking in defence, when the transfer window opens in just over three weeks.
There is also a sense that, for at least part of this season, Wolves’ performances deserved more than they earned. In the early games, the number of goals conceded was considerably greater than their expected goals against figure — a statistical model showing the number of goals they would be expected to concede based on the quality of chances created by their opponents.
In four of the first five games, they conceded more goals than their xGA figure (expected goals against). The six goals conceded against Chelsea came from an xGA of just 1.69 — they regularly conceded long-range goals and goals that were due to goalkeeping errors.
In more recent times, that has changed, with the underlying data much more closely reflecting the actual outcomes, although the 4-0 defeat at Everton came with an xGA of just 1.02. This graph looking back at recent seasons suggests a high degree of misfortune in general this season.
Wolves sources believe they have navigated other difficult situations and can find a way through this one. They remain convinced by O’Neil’s talents — but that is not the primary reason why he remains in a job.
If a potential successor had been available who the Wolves hierarchy believed was a definite upgrade then O’Neil would almost certainly have departed by now. The fact he remains is due primarily to the fact that, so far, that has not been the case.
Assessing potential future managers is an ongoing process at a modern football club as every eventuality is prepared for, but at Wolves that process took on an additional urgency as O’Neil’s reign continued to unravel in late autumn.
And according to sources, Wolves spent the start of the last international break sounding out potential replacements for O’Neil. That, despite the fact Wolves went into it on the back of their first win of the season against Southampton.
Those who were contacted discreetly in case a change was made included representatives of Graham Potter, the former Chelsea and Brighton manager, who is one of two out-of-work managers with relatively recent Premier League success. But despite some early optimism, Potter eventually decided not to progress the conversations.
The other readily available manager with recent top-flight pedigree in England, David Moyes, is on a list of other top-tier coaches sources have said are not currently interested in the role.
Those sources say the group also included Massimiliano Allegri, the former Juventus manager, ex-Porto boss Sergio Conceicao, a client of the agent Jorge Mendes, who has strong links to Wolves, and Niko Kovac, the former Bayern Munich boss.
The reasons for their reluctance vary but Wolves’ owner Fosun’s desire to make the club’s football operations self-sustainable does not make the job attractive to ambitious managers.
As O’Neil put it immediately after Monday’s 2-1 defeat at West Ham: “If it was easy to do that, then the whole of the Premier League would be doing it.”
So if Wolves were to replace O’Neil now it would involve going left-field.
That could involve delving into the Championship for managers such as West Brom’s Carlos Corberan, who would require a compensation payment and come with the baggage of managing Wolves’ fiercest rivals. There’s also Luton’s Rob Edwards, who is hugely respected at Molineux as a former player and academy coach but is currently struggling near the foot of the table.
They could also look abroad. There are managers there doing well who have no experience of English football. Wolves might even take a chance on those overseas coaches currently out of work like Roger Schmidt, who was sacked by Benfica in August, or Kasper Hjulmand, who recently ended his four-year stint as Denmark manager but his limited experience as a club boss.
Potter decided not to progress conversations with Wolves (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
But each of those options comes with a level of uncertainty and risk that Wolves have so far assessed is at least as big as persisting with O’Neil.
The same applies to the final option — sacking O’Neil without a successor in place and turning to a caretaker manager.
The most likely option would be James Collins, who is respected for his work with Wolves’ under-21s but has never managed a senior club side.
Steve Davis stepped up from his role as under-18s boss to become caretaker manager two years ago following the sacking of Bruno Lage. But he endured a difficult spell in charge and has since switched to a new role as pathways manager, overseeing the development of the club’s youngsters.
O’Neil’s coaching team of Tim Jenkins, Shaun Derry and Ian Burchnall would all be expected to leave if the current boss was sacked.
Bizarrely, that leaves O’Neil himself in some ways thrust into the de facto role of caretaker, asked to mind the shop despite looking and sounding like a man whose race is run while the club continue to explore alternatives.
While he remains in the job, O’Neil has the opportunity to reverse what appears to be a terminal decline in his fortunes, especially given that the next two matches for his side are against fellow strugglers Ipswich and Leicester before meetings with bigger clubs, Manchester United and Tottenham, who find themselves in indifferent form.
But while O’Neil looks to find solutions from within, Wolves will inevitably continue looking at outside options. Those conversations are ongoing, meaning the situation may change before the weekend. But the more likely scenario right now sees O’Neil back in the dugout for an afternoon that threatens to be highly charged with anger, directed at the head coach and his superiors.
It is an uncomfortable prospect for which there is no real appetite. But for now, it is still considered to be better than the realistic alternatives.
(Top photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
