The Year of Concentration, Crypto, China

In this podcast, Motley Fool host Dylan Lewis and analysts Bill Mann and Matt Argersinger discuss:

• Why 2024 was such a good year for investors, and the concerns they have about valuations and market concentration as they look ahead to 2025.
• The winners and losers of 2024 and the front-page stories you may have forgotten about: the CrowdStrike outage and yen carry trade.
• Two investments worth watching: Nebius and Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF.

Then James Zahn, editor in chief at The Toy Book, talks through the toys at the top of wish lists this holiday season, tech toys, and how toymakers and retailers are trying to bring value to cash-strapped shoppers.

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool’s free podcasts, check out our podcast center. To get started investing, check out our beginner’s guide to investing in stocks. A full transcript follows the video.

This video was recorded on Dec. 13, 2024.

Dylan Lewis: It’s the end of 2024, and I bet you totally forgot about. This week’s Motley Full Money Radio Show starts now. It’s the Motley Fool Money radio show. I’m Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the Airwaves Motley Fool senior analyst, Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann. Fools. Great to have you both here. Dylan.

Bill Mann: How you doing, Dylan?

Dylan Lewis: I’m doing great because we are getting to put a bow on 2024. This is our annual look back. We are going to be checking in on the winners and losers of the past year, maybe reminding listeners of a couple of things that they forgot about in the news cycle over the last 12 months. I’m going to kick us off with a rolling market check in. As we tape 11 market days remaining, S&P 500 up 27% year to date. NASDAQ up 35% year to date. Dow up 16% year to date. Matt unless something unprecedented happens in the next two weeks. 2024 will go down as a good year for stock investors.

Matt Argersinger: That’s an understatement Dylan. Good I’d say remarkable year. Anytime you can have the broader market up almost 30% is a pretty amazing year for the market. But actually Dylan it’s been a remarkable two year run for the market. If you look at the NASDAQ 100, since the start of 2023, it’s up nearly 100%. The S&P 500 is up more than 60%. I’ll just say this, and this is something David Gardner says all the time. You know, the market is up two out of every three years. We’ve had two really strong years now. Valuations where they’re at, especially for the US stock market. This is from Yardeni research.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple. This is based on earnings for the new year 2025. It’s trading at forward P/E multiple of 22. You have to go back to 1999 to get a multiple that’s higher than that. By the way, Yardeni is mega cap eight, which is defined as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The companies we talk about all the time, they’re trading at an average forward P/E multiple of 31. Two strong years, closing in on record valuations. Can we or should we expect 2025 to be another year where the market goes up 20% or more? I think things get a little more challenging from here, but that’s just me.

Bill Mann: It’s really interesting. Thomas Peife who is the founder of Interactive Brokers, said the other day that the magnificent seven represents about 70% of the trading volumes on their platform. He also came out and said, what else is up this year, and this should be no surprise whatsoever. Margin loans are up 16%. There is definitely a risk on environment that we are in. The really remarkable thing to me about this year is ultimately how stable it’s been. There haven’t been huge swings. It’s just been, Hey, the market’s up half a percent every single day, it seems. Ultimately, there is nothing quite as destabilizing as long term stability.

Dylan Lewis: Bill’s number for the year was that 70% IAB activity and showing some of the concentration there. You hit at that a little bit as well Matt when you were talking about the big companies, that are in focus, and we are checking in on the valuations of there. What’s your stat for the year?

Matt Argersinger: Well, it’s funny. I also have a 70% number. It’s similar to Bill’s 70%. But this is coming from Ruchir Sharma. I hope I’m pronouncing that first name correctly, but he is the chair of Rockefeller International, big money management firm. He wrote a piece in the Financial Times a couple of weeks ago that with the headline, the Mother of all bubbles, maybe a tad hyperbolic. I don’t know, but in that article, he points to the fact that US companies alone now account for roughly 70% of the global market cap. That’s of course, far higher than America’s 27% share of the global economy. It’s of course, much higher than America’s 4% share of the global population.

Sharma also points out that in 2024, foreigners are on pace to purchase $1 trillion of US debt. That’s almost double the flows to the entire Eurozone and 70% of the 13 trillion in total capital flows to private investments, that stock, bonds, corporate debt, it’s all flowing to the US. I think we all agree at this table. America is an exceptional place. It’s an exceptional place to invest. It’s an exceptional place to do business. But are we really this exceptional? I’m sure Bill would agree. I think foolish investors would be well served to start looking just a little bit outside the US for some opportunities, and by the way, I’m looking in the mirror at this as well.

Bill Mann: We need to be really careful that we’re not just talking about mean reversion investing because the US market is rather expensive and it is historically expensive versus other countries. But I think in a risk on environment, what you are seeing in the diversion between the US and a lot of other countries is that we have a much different attitude about risk and capital formation than you see, particularly in Europe where they have now zero of the largest ten companies in the world by market cap. They are all in the United States, and whatever else you want to say about it, it’s not by accident.

Dylan Lewis: As you guys are factoring in the valuation side of things, the concentration side of things, both within the US and also the US’s presence in the global markets, are you incorporating that into how you are managing your own money for the year? Are you putting a little bit more cash on the side as we head into 2025, Matt?

Matt Argersinger: I would like to. Let’s put it that way Dylan. I haven’t. I’m pretty much fully invested across all my portfolios, but it does have me thinking that maybe given where we’ve come the past two years, as we’ve talked about, having a little cash on the sidelines would not hurt.

Dylan Lewis: Bill, you?

Bill Mann: No I’m pretty much fully invested. I have taken a little bit more and put it into companies that I guess you would describe as value driven. I don’t see as many obvious bargains as you would have seen 18 months ago. But that doesn’t mean that the market has overshot at all. I think that there is plenty to be said for the great change that we are seeing now, the capital efficiency of the companies, particularly at the largest end of the US stock market.

Dylan Lewis: I want to check in on some of the winners and losers. We talk about Nvidia all the time, so I’m not going to bring it into this discussion other than to say, up 170%, we have to name check it.

Bill Mann: What company was that? I haven’t heard of this. This is crazy.

Dylan Lewis: Little Chip company, Number 3 when it comes to top performers in the S&P 500 this year. A lot of other names we talk about plenty Palantir at the top of that list, Axon in the top five, something I want to zoom in on with some of the winners for 2024. Five out of the top ten performers in the S&P 500 are companies with energy exposure. Vistra Corp., Number 2, GE Vernova Number 5, Texas Pacific Land Corp, Number 7, Targa Resources and Constellation Energy rounding out the top ten. Bill, what’s going on here?

Bill Mann: Just a moment ago, I was warning against mean reversion investing, but here’s the thing about means. They’re really powerful, and they do love to revert, and the energy sector is a big example. In 2021, the energy sector made up about 3% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. What you see, even at the time when we were talking about the Meta verse and crypto, and now you’re seeing it with AI, none of this is happening without some real investments into energy across the board. You are seeing companies that have been ignored for a very long time. Suddenly people are paying attention to the fact that, our future requires an enormous amount of electricity, an enormous amount of power. If we don’t have it, then every other thing that we are thinking is going to happen, won’t happen.

Matt Argersinger: Couldn’t agree more Bill and I just have to say Dylan, I know you said we can’t talk about it, but I have to because Bill brought up the energy sector. If you look at Nvidia’s market cap right now, $3.5 trillion. You sold Nvidia, you could buy the entire energy sector, all the companies you just talked about, plus the giants like Exxon, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, everything else, you’d still have money left over to buy Walmart, Coca-Cola, and JPMorgan. By the way, if you did that, you’d be getting more dividends from those companies than Nvidia earns an entire year. Sorry, I just had to bring it into the conversation again.

Dylan Lewis: It’s the ultimate conglomerate. If Nvidia were to own all those businesses, it’s the, Chevron, Texon Chipotle Palmar a couple years ago.

Bill Mann: Man, I can’t wait to start researching this obscure company that you guys have been talking about.

Dylan Lewis: I think you’re going to like what you see them. Those are some of the clear winners of 2024. I do want to talk about some of the losers. Matt, what makes the list for you?

Matt Argersinger: Well, pretty much every read, especially the ones I’ve talked about on this show. It’s been a tough slog for the real estate sector for two years now. If you look at the average real estate ETF up about 10% this year. Not a bad year really but just really lagging behind the market of course which is, again, almost up 30%. By the way real estate is one of those few sectors that still has not recovered all its losses from the 2022 bear market. If you look at the Vanguard real estate ETF, it’s still down about 19% from its former high from a few years ago. For a guy who likes ats and invests in them, it hasn’t felt good the past two years, but I’m getting to see potential opportunity to talk about mean reversion, as Bill was saying.

Bill Mann: They don’t love you back.

Matt Argersinger: They don’t.

Dylan Lewis: What would be a radio show appearance by Matt Argersinger? If we didn’t talk a little real estate. Bill, what’s on your loser list this year?

Bill Mann: For me, it’s got to be the low cost full serve restaurants. The casual dining restaurants, obviously, Red Lobster’s gone bankrupt, TGI Fridays, Chili’s, they are all in a great deal of distress. I think it has to do with the fact that there’s been a trade down from those restaurants in an inflationary environment, and there has not been as much of a trade down from the top end to the lower end.

Dylan Lewis: Appreciate you bring your stories. We’re going to come right back in a minute with the stories that our listeners probably forgot about. Stay right here. You’re listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Dylan Lewis. Here on air with Bill Mann. Matt Argersinger. We are recapping an excellent year for the market in 2024 and looking at some of the major themes in the investing world, maybe reminding our listeners a little bit about some stories that they forgot about. Bill, I love the full year show. I love the look back. But the stories people forgot about is my favorite segment, and there have been no shortage of headlines, no shortage of really big market moving things this year in that flurry, some easy things to miss or have slipped to the back of your mind. What do you want to bring back forward?

Bill Mann: I’m old enough to remember August 5 of this year in which we had a very short lived global financial crisis. Based on the Japanese Yen carry trade. We woke up and the Nikkei 225 had dropped more than 12%, which I don’t know if you know this is a lot.

Dylan Lewis: Quite a bit.

Bill Mann: That’s more than usual. It was a massive drop, and it had to do with the fact that Japan, for the first time in decades, seemed to be preparing to raise their interest rates at a period of time in which the US and other markets were most likely going to be lowering rates. What happens is a lot of people will borrow money in a cheap currency and use it to invest in speculative instruments in the countries where currency is more expensive. It was this wild unwinding. It lasted, I don’t know, 48 hours, but it was a pretty scary 48 hours. Now we’ve just forgotten about it. Everything’s fine.

Matt Argersinger: The VIX went up to, like, 65, Bill. It was the highest since the global financial crisis. It was amazing, just for that really short period of time.

Dylan Lewis: As it happened, it affected the S&P 500. I think, several whole percentage points, I felt a big massive move for investors here in the United States, even though it was all related to stuff happening when it came to monetary policy abroad. The market has continued to march on, Bill. It has not seemed to mind the Yen carry trade at all.

Bill Mann: No, if you look at the chart now, you’ll see this tiny little blip in the chart that it’s super easy to forget what happened because ultimately, it didn’t matter, but it did that day.

Dylan Lewis: Matt, what do you want to bring back into front and center for investors as we wrap up the year?

Matt Argersinger: Well, just about two weeks before this Yen Carry trade catastrophe hit the market, we had this little software error, if you guys remember, that brought airlines, especially Delta Airlines to a standstill for, like, a week. I remember this pretty clearly my 5-year-old son and I were trying to get back from Boston to DC. We got stuck at Logan Airport for 8 hours, had to get a hotel. It was a mess. But this was a software glitch that happened when CrowdStrike, I guess, tried to update some of their software or sent an update, and any machines using Microsoft operating systems all of a sudden fell victim to this glitch, I froze networks, it froze, databases, all stuff.

I mentioned, airline travel came to stand. Other companies though around the globe were also affected. While we’re still trying to find out the ultimate financial liability of it all, it also showcased just how vulnerable our software systems are to changes in code or worse hacks or cyber attacks. We forget but CrowdStrike stock price was down about 30% or maybe even more from its high. I think it’s recovered most of those losses now, but that was quite a moment there for about a week.

Dylan Lewis: That is why this is my favorite discussion is because I think across the board, when we talk about these stories, they feel so massive and impactful to shareholders and to investors in the moment. But when we take that long view, we’re able to see this is an opportunity for business to execute and keep moving forward. It’s an opportunity for the market to keep rewarding shareholders along the way. It’s an opportunity for us as Fools, to live out the long term buy and hold approach that we want people to maintain. It’s a dose of reminder.

I will throw one out that is not a bad thing. It’s just a thing, and I think it’s an interesting market mechanics thing. I bet that listeners forgot that the SEC approved a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024. The reason for that is because so much of the headlines have been about the consumer side of Bitcoin. It passing $100,000, it hitting 2 trillion in coin Cap, so to speak. The AUM for Bitcoin ETFs is over $100 billion at this point. That is a lot of money. Regardless of your take on Bitcoin and crypto, I think you are seeing the legitimacy path for this continue to be built out and built out. Bill I look at it and I say, You know what? It is here. It is hard to untangle something that has been this institutionalized at this point.

Bill Mann: You can’t unring that bell, and you’re talking about it as an asset of stored value, and at least, I think you would have to admit, even if you are a skeptic, which I’m, that we have passed a point in which that is an arguable prospect.

Dylan Lewis: I think some people could argue 2024 was the year of Bitcoin. For some people that are true Bitcoin truthers and believers, I’m going to give you both the opportunity to fill in the blank there, though. Matt, 2024 was the year of blank for you.

Matt Argersinger: Well, this might be surprising, but 2024 was the year of bankruptcies Dylan. This is data from S&P Global shocking to me, but the number of corporate bankruptcies, both public and private companies that SMP covers in their universe, the bankruptcies hit 570 as of the end of October. That puts it on pace for a 14 year high, and it could come close to exceeding 2010 when 710 companies filed for bankruptcy. Of course, that was coming right out of the global financial crisis, a really vulnerable time for the economy. Surprising, and you got notable bankruptcies. Bill mentioned Red Lobster, one of the more notable ones, but we had we work, which was a $15 billion bankruptcy. Joanne stores, $0.99 only. A lot of stores that people are familiar with went bankrupt this year.

Dylan Lewis: Bill, what are you characterizing 2024 as the year of?

Bill Mann: I’m going back Brady Bunch, but instead of Marcia this entire year has been China, on a bunch of different levels. We started this year with China conducting massive military exercises to really destabilize Taiwan try and intimidate them. You can see the Taiwanese companies have adjusted by doing things like building plants outside of Taiwan. You now see China really trying to reignite its own economy. It’s pushing a piece of spaghetti by trying to solve a demand side issue with supply side economics. Good luck to them, but China is the big story for 2024.

Dylan Lewis: I appreciate right after I brought up, you guys brought me right back down. Right on a down there.

Bill Mann: Everything is terrible. Back to you Dylan.

Dylan Lewis: Bill, Matt we’re going to see you guys a little bit later in the show. Up next, we’ve got your last minute gift guide and how the toy industry is trying to offer more discount options this holiday season. Stay right here. B money.

Dylan Lewis: Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I’m Dylan Lewis. As we tape today’s show, we’re less than two weeks away from Christmas Day. If you put off some of your holiday shopping, don’t worry. You’re in good company so have I. To get on track and up to speed on the trends this holiday season, I caught up with James Zahn. He’s the editor in chief at the Toy Book and my go to for the state of play for the holidays. James thanks for joining me on Motley Fool Money.

James Zahn: Thanks for having me again. Looking forward to this.

Dylan Lewis: It’s becoming an annual visit, and we are very appreciative of it. I want to dig right in here. For 2024, what’s hot, what’s not when it comes to toys?

James Zahn: Well, there’s a lot of classic stuff that’s been reinvented, and I think one of the coolest items we’ve seen this here comes from Hasbro, which is the Plato pizza delivery scooter. They’ve taken Plato, which they’ve been making for decades on this tactile compound play, and then they made a ride on, which looks a lot like a Vespa scooter. It has all kinds of things built into it for different play value that there’s molds that the kids can make pizza and other things and then pretend they’re the delivery driver. When they get to their destination, they can flip down a side, and the cash register is there, and then charge their friend or family member for this pizza, and then be on their way. Of course, parents love the fact that it all packs right back into it.

I think that’s an innovative new concept to combine active play with the creative play. From there, I think Fat Brain Toys, their air tubes line has been very innovative. It’s been very hot. I’ve actually heard that, unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, some of the flippers are going after this one because it’s about $150 base kit where kids are going to learn about things like velocity and the speed of error, and they put these foam balls through the tubes, and then they have an expansion pack that has a wacky waving inflatable flailing arm tube man that the kids can play with. This is one of those toys too that transcends where I think the box might even say something like 0-100 on it. Grown-ups love this thing too, and they can make layouts that go throughout their living room or family room. It’s a lot of fun. Nintendo is on the video game side.

They came out with a ton of games. It’s a little bit unusual. Usually have that one or two big titles for fall. They did five or six of them. There’s a new Legend of Zelda game. There’s Mario Party Jamboree, which up to 20 folks can play online at one time. There’s 120 mini-games built into that. There’s sequel to Luigi’s Mansion. There’s a Mario and Luigi Brotherhood game. Lots of fun, and the switch is one of those game consoles that because you can play with other folks, friends and family, it’s a nice bonding thing through the holidays.

Dylan Lewis: I remember last year when we were talking about this. You had noted that there are some pitfalls when it comes to the tech-reliant toys or the app-reliant toys. I want to get your take on the story that I saw this week.

James Zahn: I know what it is.

Dylan Lewis: [laughs] You know where I’m going with this one?

James Zahn: Is it Moxie?

Dylan Lewis: It is. The $800 AI robot that the company is now shutting down. What is your take on this?

James Zahn: My take is that I actually have about 1,000 words written on this that I haven’t published yet. You know the band The Hives? They’ve got the song Hate to Say I Told You So?

Dylan Lewis: Yeah.

James Zahn: I really do because 11 years ago, I wrote a review of a toy called Zimis that was basically a plush alien, but it was dependent on an adult putting their iPhone, which at the time, I think we were on iPhone 3, in the face of this thing, and then there was an app, and the app became the expressions of the toy. At the time, I said, I think the real business here is the app, not the plush because anybody can make a plush. But what happens when the support for that app goes away? The toy is essentially dead. I had equated that to how are tech toys going to become timeless. Whereas if I go back now today, 40 years, I find an old Teddy Ruxpin, I can put a tape in it, batteries, it works.

These cloud-based toys, and now we’ve had an incredible year on the development side where there’s a lot of AI coming into toys. But already now we see this $800 toy goes away. Now you have to talk to your kids essentially about death. This was a toy that was designed to be a companion and to teach kids emotion and compassion. If you look at that frequently asked questions that they put up about closing, they can’t even tell you definitively when it’s going to shut down so it could literally die in front of the kids because they’re like, it could be today, it could be tomorrow, we honestly can’t tell you. That is a concern. I also saw just within the past year, Toy Fair 2023 was in New York in September of last year, and one of the products that came out was AI version of an old toy from the ’70s called 2-XL from Mego. They rushed to ship some of those for the last holiday season and then did a formal launch in March.

I kid you not, this morning after this conversation started, I went to their website and visitors are greeted with a pop-up that says, we are investigating an app outage, more details to come, and the toy is not available on their website, and Amazon says currently unavailable. I think this is a very cautionary tale.

Dylan Lewis: One of the things I wanted to get your take on too with what we’re looking at for the holidays and both the toy and entertainment space is we had a lot of really big names this holiday season at the Box Office, a lot of big recognizable names, Wicked, Moana 2, Gladiator 2. Are you seeing those properties and the merch associated with them creep into wish lists this year?

James Zahn: Gladiator, I have not. I know it was years ago, and the movie was even old at that point. Funko had made some Funko pops, I believe, based on the first Gladiator. I have not seen anything for the new one outside of the popcorn buckets, which have become a really trendy thing in the industry, they call them vessels. I know they did a couple for the movie. Wicked is the big success story because no one knew just how big that movie was going to become. They expected, of course, with the book and the Broadway play that there was going to be an audience. But I think Target had really great execution with that. They did some partnerships where they did nice pull-togethers in their stores. They had exclusive merchandise. Mattel has the dolls.

JAKKS Pacific‘s disguise division makes the costumes for Wicked, and those are on the market. Some of those are what we call everyday dress up, too, where the kids can, it’s not just a Halloween or a seasonal thing, but some really great products there. Moana 2 is back in action, and actually, JAKKS is making Moana 2 toys as well and so is Mattel, as well. The same two companies are both doing Moana. I think the next big one that’s going to hit here this week is Sonic the Hedgehog 3. There’s a nice assortment of toys with that, and very interesting trajectory with the Sonic movies. The first movie had very few toys because no one knew if that movie was going to be a success or not, because at that time, video game movies were really hit-and-miss.

But it was almost a one-two punch of Detective Pikachu from Pokémon, and Sonic the Hedgehog coming out and being great movies. The toys have gotten better and become more of them each time.

Dylan Lewis: You mentioned the relationship between Wicked and Target, and it feels like they have followed a fairly similar playbook to what Barbie did. With its release, where you have a massive, highly anticipated release. You have this incredibly coordinated merch retail strategy as well. I feel like people in the toy business but also in the movie business are probably taking notes on that style, and we might wind up seeing some more of it.

James Zahn: It’s an old-school approach that we need to see more of. I have actually been all year, I’ve been a little bit notoriously aggressive toward the retail side of the business, because retail presentation, and I live in this toy bubble, but I see all of it, and I also worked in the retail side of the business many years ago, it’s pretty dismal in the US compared to the international markets. If you go into an international toy seller like a Smith’s or the entertainer or Hamleys or something, these great presentations. Then we’re even seeing a lot of really exciting retail activations throughout Asia, Dubai, big statements.

That used to be a thing here, where if there was a new product launch or a new movie, you could walk into, of course, Toys of Russ, or Target or Kmart back in the day Walmart, and at both entrances of the store, you would typically walk into an environment that was built around that film, and it would have the toys and everything else that goes with it, all the ancillary stuff. I don’t see as much of that anymore, and I think that’s a bit of an issue.

Wicked tapped into that in a bigger way, in my opinion than Barbie with the Target promo, because they had all of it. They had the toys, they had the clothes, they had a lot of fashion involved in that. But then they also have, I think it’s Betty Crocker cake and muffin mixes, and there’s cereal and all of the things in a way. Think of Star Wars. When the prequels came out about 25 years ago now I think, when the Phantom Menace came out, there was that big retail presentation marketing statement, retail theater. I’d like to see more of that. I think there’s a lot of opportunities for people to do that. I’d like to see, of course, the big boxes, like to see Walmart getting involved in that a little bit more. Macy’s has a lot of opportunity, they’ve got a toys or us department in every store. It’s pretty interesting how that all plays out.

Dylan Lewis: On the retailer side, one of the things we’ve been following over the course of the year has been this trend of consumers either trading down or delaying for a lot of purchases. That’s looked like a lot of would-be Target shoppers instead going to Walmart, or people deciding, I’m going to delay, that more discretionary purchase. Yet, we look at some of the early numbers we’ve seen on Black Friday, some of the insights from Cyber Monday, and it seems like the spend has continued. Is this just people find the way they find the budget when it comes to the holiday gifts, or is there anything else going on here?

James Zahn: The one time of the year when parents are typically not going to skimp on their kids is going to be the holidays. That’s been a tradition for years. Parents want to do the best they can for their kids. You will see some of those spends. In the toy department, inflation has been a huge issue. A lot of the other economic concerns. A lot of mixed messages out there. I’m sure you see it with the job market. One side says, it’s great, one side says, no, it’s not. People get concerned. They hear all of the noise, and then they don’t know, and they pull back. What’s happened on the toy side is that toy makers and retailers are really being collaborative in developing new products that hit certain price points. We’re seeing this year, a lot of 999 toys, 9, 10, 15, 20, 25, that’s the sweet spot. You look at what a lot of these companies are doing, Hasbro, for example, last year they had a $70 Furby, this year, it’s a $10 Furblet. It’s a little version. MGA Entertainment with their mini verse line, and a lot of other toys that are in that 10-15 range. That’s really important, and you have to design from the get-go to hit this. Then now we’ve got this other factor. The concerns have kicked in. But if tariffs actually happen, that’s a whole new layer of trouble that the industry needs to fight off again.

Dylan Lewis: What’s amazing is I think when we think about shrinkflation, it is always with food. You are getting slightly less for that thing that you used to buy, or retailers trying to offer slightly less to hit a more accessible price point. I have never thought about toys being a possibility for shrinkflation, and yet these smaller Furbies, some of these smaller toys, probably a little bit easier for some of these companies to produce and make cost-effective in a tough environment.

James Zahn: That’s true. Then you also have companies designing for the value channels now. Take Five Below, for example. It’s very well known for having trendy products, really tapping to that tween market and tweens and even teens now, very important to the toy business as well. In the past, where you might have, say, some closeouts or something go into that value channel, now they’re designing for the value channel, and they’re hitting different scales of product. One great one I can point out, there’s this company in LA called the Loyal subjects, and they have found a niche in resurrecting old brands and making them super popular again. Right now, Rainbow Brite and Strawberry Shortcake. They have the big dolls, but they also have the miniature collectibles, and those you can go to Five Below and find. They’re designed for that, they’re designed to be a five-dollar toy. If you have $5, they’ve got you. You want to spend 20, well, they got you on that too, but you get them at different places.

Dylan Lewis: Listeners, you can catch James’ piece on Moxie and the show notes for today’s episode if you’re listening to our podcast, and you can catch his coverage on the industry over at toybook.com. Also, we want to know what was on your holiday list this year. Let us know what the must-have items were. Our email is [email protected]. We’re going to take a quick break but don’t go anywhere. Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann are going to be coming back in just a minute with stocks on their radar. You’re listening to Motley Fool Money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. Don’t buy or sell anything based solely on what you hear.

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Motley Fool only picks products it personally recommend a friends like you. I’m Dylan Lewis joined again by Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann. Gents, we’ve spent a lot of time reminiscing, so we are going to jump right in to stocks on our radar this week. As always, our man behind the glass, Rick Engdahl is going to hit you with a question. Bill, you’re up first. What are you looking at this week?

Bill Mann: My company is called Nebius Group. It went into a cocoon. It was a Russian do everything company called Yandex, and I don’t know if you guys heard, but Russia is bad, but it is now has come back. It is a Dutch company called Nebius and they run data centers. They have some huge assets that I think are deeply undervalued. Interestingly enough, they got a $700 million investment from NVIDIA announced this week. It has come back from not necessarily the dead, but it has come back from exile. It’s going to be really interesting to see what this company does going forward.

Dylan Lewis: Rick, a question about Nebius.

Rick Engdahl: I got nothing.

Dylan Lewis: [laughs] Very nebulous.

Matt Argersinger: Terrible name.

Dylan Lewis: We may have some follow-ups in a moment. Matt, what is on your radar this week?

Matt Argersinger: Guys, I’m reading an excellent book called Shareholder Yield by Med Faber. In the book, he really talks about this alternative, or I guess Faber would argue a superior approach to dividend investing, which is shareholder yield, which is dividends, plus net share buybacks, plus net debt reduction. Faber is the CIO and co-founder of Cambria Capital Management. They have some ETFs. One of those ETFs is the Cambria foreign shareholder yield ETF, a mouthful ticker FYLD. It gives investors instant diversification to non-US stocks, which is great, based on the conversations we’ve had on this show. But also dividends shareholder yield, it comes with a yield right now of 4.3%. I’m interested.

Dylan Lewis: Rick, a question about an ETF? Is Matt allowed to do that? I think I broke the rules. Sorry, guys.

Rick Engdahl: Why did you break the rules? [laughs] Sorry, my game is weak today.

Dylan Lewis: Rick sounds so broken, mate. Your suggestion, Matt.

Rick Engdahl: I just broke this show, I’m sorry.

Dylan Lewis: [laughs] You’re not going to turn that into a nice, eloquent discussion of diversification and the merits of spreading your bets or anything like that, Matt?

Matt Argersinger: Everything Dylan just said. That’s what I’m going with.

Dylan Lewis: [laughs] You have two very different choices here, Rick. An ETF and something that you didn’t even dignify with a follow-up question or a comment with Nebius. Which one is going on your watch list this week?

Rick Engdahl: Matt, he’s dressed better. I’m going to go with Matt.

Matt Argersinger: [laughs] I am? Wow.

Dylan Lewis: You can’t see it, but that’s the beauty of it. You can’t see it, so you have no idea of it.

Matt Argersinger: Thank you, Rick.

Dylan Lewis: Rick, thank you for all your work behind the scenes and for hopping into our radar stock talk with your comments, your questions, your occasional in 2024. Of course, Matt, Bill, appreciate you guys. Bringing the stocks and bringing the analysis every single week you are on the show. Finally, to bring us home, listeners, thank you for tuning in and indulging us all year. It was an awesome 2024 from Motley Fool Money.

We won the Best Money and Finance Show for the year. We also found out that we have listeners in 140 countries. We get to do this because you are out there listening, and you have already given us so much when it comes to your time, your attention. If you still feel like giving, if you’re still feeling generous, and you want to help us in our attempt to take over the globe in 2025 and reach all of the 190-plus countries out there, leave us a five-star review wherever you listen to our podcast. Helps us reach more listeners. If you’ve got ideas for the show, that’s a great gift too. [email protected] is where you can send those ideas. That’s going to do it for this week’s Motley Fool Money radio show. I’m Dylan Lewis. Thank you for listening today, and all year. We’ll see you next time.