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Sam Tighe and Brett Koremenos previewed the Champions League final between PSG and Inter from a betting lens. Who do they like?
Paris Saint-Germain are favourites to win, with Inter clear underdogs. Is that fair?
ST: With these odds, bookmakers are effectively giving Paris Saint-Germain a 62 per cent chance of winning the Champions League final, which feels about right.
Given Les Parisiens have knocked off not one, not two, but three strong Premier League opponents en route to this point — Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal — they’ve earned a reputation to be feared. Their 10-0 demolition of Brest in the play-off round sent shockwaves around Europe.
Luis Enrique’s men have played some of the finest football we’ve seen all season while also keeping clean sheets away at Anfield and the Emirates Stadium. They have every right to be considered the favourites — even against an incredibly strong and resourceful Inter side.
BK: Since the addition of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG have been utterly dominant, “best team in the world” kind of dominant. You can dismiss their Ligue 1 results all you want, but the three English clubs Enrique’s men have mowed down on their Champions League march currently rank first (Liverpool), second (Arsenal) and 11th (Villa) in the ClubElo ratings. Looking at it that way, it seems like PSG should be nearly 1/2 favourite to lift the trophy against any opponent.
In actuality, these odds should be down to nearly a coin flip. We wrote earlier about Inter as a dark horse candidate that could sneak their way into the final. As of now, they’re no longer a plucky underdog. This winning run past Barcelona and Bayern Munich has unveiled them as one of the best clubs in the world, and nearly every number backs it up.
Inter are third in the ClubElo ratings, have the sixth-best expected goal differential (xGD) per 90 minutes in Europe’s big five leagues, and even rank a shocking 14th in the Deloitte Money League rankings — which blows apart the theory they’re some poor Italian side feeding on other teams’ scraps. They may not splash the cash or reel in fancy signings like some mega-clubs do, but this team have proven they can go toe-to-toe with anyone and make it a fair fight. I’m a little shocked the odds don’t show it.
From a betting perspective, did we learn anything useful from the semi-final performances?
BK: Set-pieces are going to be a problem for PSG. Watching that last Arsenal match, every time a long throw or corner was whipped in, there was the thought that anything could happen. It’s not just an anxiety issue either, as the club’s Ligue 1 numbers are more shaky than I realized.
PSG have allowed the highest percentage of goals from set pieces in France. This team is so good at many things, but they are tiny and it made me wonder if Inter — a team that deploys three central defenders and Denzel Dumfries — will make them pay in the final. Arsenal are jokingly called Set Piece F.C. for a reason, but I definitely left that second leg with a renewed awareness of PSG’s vulnerabilities.
ST: I’d extend this point to the quarter-finals too, and say that over the last four PSG games, we’ve learned that goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is in the sort of superhuman form that can win this trophy single-handedly.
He performed heroics at Villa Park to deny Villa a famous comeback, saving a Marco Asensio one-on-one, stopping a goal-bound Youri Tielemans header and clawing away a ferocious Marcus Rashford strike. His performance at the Emirates wasn’t too dissimilar, keeping a clean sheet in a game where PSG leaked 1.7 xG.
A goalkeeper in this sort of form is tough to beat and becomes a huge advantage to call upon in case the game goes to penalties. I’m already eyeing up the goalkeeper saves number market.
PSG have the league wrapped up, Inter are fighting tooth and nail for the title. What’s better?
ST: Momentum is everything in sport, and while greater recovery time can have a big say at the elite level, Inter will have a full week to prepare for this game following the conclusion of their league season on May 25.
That should be enough time to rest weary legs and tired minds while also working on a tactical plan to beat PSG. It may feel like a disadvantage that they will only be able to turn their attention to this game late on — whereas Enrique is probably conducting training drills on it right now — what if his team’s intensity dips to a point it cannot recover from?
BK: The main drawback to Inter having to continue playing isn’t going to be fresh legs but the inherent injury risk that comes with more minutes. Rust or no rust, PSG’s stars being fit and healthy will matter more than a slight dip in form. Inter’s push for the league title prohibits them from being as protective with their key players.
The interesting thing about that is that I’m not sure the Italian side has too many irreplaceable figures on their roster. Mehdi Taremi isn’t Lautaro Martínez but he’s a very capable striker. Piotr Zieliński won’t have Nicolò Barella’s passing prowess, but he’s played thousands of minutes in one of the world’s best leagues. The only player whose skill set seems irreplaceable in the event of an injury is Dumfries; his box-crashing ability from right wing-back is unique and vital to the side.
It would obviously be best if Inter didn’t have to risk these players to the same degree as their opponent in the final, but as long as injuries don’t come on fast and furious, the Italians should be okay, right?
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(Photo of Lautaro Martinez: Carl Recine / Getty Images)