The top five teams in college football have been consistent for a few weeks now, but the one-loss contenders saw the biggest jump in my College Football Playoff projections. Even though Michigan and Georgia both picked up quality wins on Saturday, Alabama, Texas and Oregon rose in the numbers the most since last week.
Texas survived Quinn Ewers’ absence unscathed, while Oregon and Alabama are playing well enough to be viewed as better teams by my model. Washington still has a better chance to make the CFP because the Huskies can lose a game and get in, but Oregon is now the fourth-most likely national champion.
The other thing that stands out is that my model is high on the Michigan-Ohio State loser still getting into the CFP. I was high on that last year, too. Plus, Oregon State can play wrecker with games against both Washington and Oregon.
Florida State’s resume is unimpressive and it’s looking increasingly tough for the Seminoles to get in as a one-loss team. The betting market disagrees. The Seminoles are -350 to make the CFP on BetMGM, making FSU the most likely team to get into the field of four. My model would have them closer to the -120/-130 range.
Here’s how the model works: I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. After every simulation is complete, I have developed a model that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” derived from prior resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season.
Here’s how the national title contenders rank after Week 11, according to my model. We’re down to 11 teams that made the CFP in the simulations, eight of which that made it more than 3 percent of the time.
Projected national title and College Football Playoff chances
| team | title | playoff |
|---|---|---|
|
23.1% |
71.4% |
|
|
21.0% |
74.7% |
|
|
16.3% |
65.8% |
|
|
11.1% |
38.2% |
|
|
10.1% |
55.1% |
|
|
7.9% |
46.5% |
|
|
7.1% |
26.3% |
|
|
3.1% |
19.3% |
|
|
0.3% |
2.1% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
|
0.02% |
0.1% |
Biggest risers in national title chances
Alabama: +3.4% (3.7% to 7.1%)
Oregon: +2.6% (8.5% to 11.1%)
Texas: +1.4% (1.7% to 3.1%)
Biggest fallers in national title chances
Washington: -4.2% (12.1% to 7.9%)
Penn State: -1.9% (1.9% to 0%)
Ohio State -1.5% (17.8% to 16.3%)
Biggest risers in CFP chances
Alabama: +9.9% (16.4% to 26.3%)
Texas: +9.9% (9.4% to 19.3%)
Oregon: +6.8% (31.4% to 38.2%)
Biggest fallers in CFP chances
Ohio State: -11% (76.8% to 65.8%)
Penn State: -10.7% (10.7% to 0%)
Washington: -4.6% (51.1% to 46.5%)
(Photo of Bo Nix: Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
