By Ralph D. Russo, Matt Baker, Justin Williams, Joe Rexrode and Sam Khan Jr.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff field will be revealed on Sunday, but a lot is still to be determined by Saturday’s Power 4 conference championship games after Boise State locked up the first automatic bid on Friday. Our experts are here for everything you need to know about the Playoff race as conference champions are crowned, from first-round byes to home games to the bubble debate. Check back for updates throughout the day.
Essential reads:
SEC: Georgia 22, Texas 19 (OT)
A week after outlasting Georgia Tech in eight overtimes, No. 5 Georgia merely needed one overtime to win the SEC championship against No. 2 Texas. The Bulldogs were outgained 389 yards to 277 and had to turn to backup quarterback Gunner Stockton in the second half after an injury to Carson Beck, but Trevor Etienne’s touchdown run pushed them over the top for their second SEC title in the past three seasons.
Georgia is a safe bet for the No. 2 seed
Georgia’s SEC championship puts an end to any possible discussion about its Playoff-worthiness with an injured starting quarterback.
The pre-outrage was already percolating online when Beck did not play nearly the entire second half because of what appeared to be an elbow injury to his throwing arm. Yes, the committee left Florida State out last year because it lost Jordan Travis to a second-ending injury, but it should be noted: The Seminoles would have been ranked high enough to make a 12-team field.
Though he returned to the field for a handoff on the final play after Stockton’s helmet was knocked off, Beck’s injury uncertainty clouds Georgia’s Playoff prospects. But the Bulldogs (11-2) will get an extra week of rest with a first-round bye and are almost certainly locked into the No. 2 seed now. They’ll start their pursuit of the third national title in four seasons at the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. — Russo
How far will Texas fall?
Texas will probably drop a few spots from No. 2 in the rankings but stay high enough to host a first-round game.
Indiana, Alabama and Tennessee are the teams most likely to travel to Austin. But is it possible the committee gives the Longhorns a stringent reassessment in light of losing a lead to a backup quarterback in the second half Saturday? Remember, Miami plunged six spots last week after losing at Syracuse. Texas does not have a win over a ranked team and lost twice to the one it played this season. The safe guess is a drop to Georgia’s spot at No. 5 in the rankings, making it the No. 7 seed for a possible visit from Indiana in a 7-10 game. — Rexrode
What does the win say about Georgia’s national title hopes?
What a resilient, gritty win by Georgia. Quarterback dramatics aside, Georgia won with a stubborn rushing attack (37 attempts, 141 yards) and a swarming defense reminiscent of its October win over the Longhorns in Austin, with the Dawgs registering six sacks and three turnovers on Saturday.
There are still substantial questions facing the Dawgs in the 12-team bracket. How serious is Beck’s injury? And regardless of his availability, what does Saturday’s performance tell us about the Dawgs as a national title contender? The defense, when it plays to its full potential, is clearly championship-worthy. But Beck struggled before he went out, and Georgia finished the game 20-for-30 through the air for only 136 passing yards and zero touchdowns.
The SEC crown was hard-earned, but the Bulldogs and head coach Kirby Smart will have to fine tune that passing attack to have any chance of hoisting another national championship trophy. — Williams
What another loss to Georgia says about Texas
The Longhorns’ winning formula is simple: If they can run the ball, they can win. If they can’t, it’s doomsday for them. Their only two losses were the only two games in which they couldn’t crack 100 yards on the ground, both against Georgia. Texas rushed for 29 yards in the Oct. 19 loss and for 31 yards on Saturday. The other games Texas had to scratch and claw to win — 27-24 at Vanderbilt and 20-10 at Arkansas — were their next two lowest rush outputs: 104 yards and 139, respectively.
Texas has a championship-level defense and a feast-or-famine passing game with Quinn Ewers that typically makes enough big plays. But Georgia showed how to shut the Longhorns down: stifle the running game. — Khan
Big 12: Arizona State 45, Iowa State 19
The No. 15 Sun Devils dominated the No. 16 Cyclones to win the Big 12 title and secure a Playoff bid. The score was tied at 10 early in the second quarter before Arizona State scored the game’s next 35 points to turn it into a rout.
Arizona State’s shocking ascent
What a remarkable turnaround for second-year coach Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils, who went from 3-9 in 2023 and being picked last in the Big 12 preseason media poll to a conference championship in their first year in the league. This is Arizona State’s first conference championship since it shared the Pac-10 title in 2007.
Regardless of where Arizona State is seeded, it’s been a stellar season for a program that had to bounce back from the dreadful, NCAA infraction-riddled tenure of former head coach Herm Edwards. The Sun Devils secured their fifth 11-win season in program history on Saturday and first since 1996, with a chance to match and surpass the 12-win single-season record set in 1975. — Williams
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Can the Sun Devils get a first-round bye?
The Sun Devils came into the weekend ranked No. 15 by the selection committee. The Big 12 has been chasing No. 10 Boise State for a few weeks, much to the chagrin of commissioner Brett Yormark.
“Where I sit, there should be no comparison between us and a Group of 5 champion,” he said before Saturday’s game.
The Broncos won the Mountain West on Friday, so it would take a dramatic change of heart from the committee to elevate ASU past Boise State. The conversation changes if No. 17 Clemson were to beat No. 8 SMU in the ACC title game. That could make room for Arizona State and Boise State to be top-four seeds.
One other thing to consider: If Arizona State can’t get a first-round bye, could the committee reward the Sun Devils’ six-game winning streak with something better than the 12th and final seed, bumping them ahead of Alabama, which currently holds the last at-large spot? — Russo
Will Cam Skattebo be a Heisman finalist?
Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty are the clear-cut frontrunners in the Heisman Trophy race, but Skattebo bullied his way into the conversation.
Skattebo destroyed Iowa State. Four Cyclone defenders bounced off of him during a 47-yard second-quarter run before a fifth eventually brought him down. Four plays later, he strolled in from 3 yards out to give ASU a 17-10 lead, and the Sun Devils never looked back.
GROWN MAN RUN 😈
📺 ABC
📻 https://t.co/0CMltGlRNn pic.twitter.com/xHIXhjWndS— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) December 7, 2024
Skattebo scored twice more and finished with 208 total yards from scrimmage, putting him second in the FBS with 2,074 for the season, trailing only Jeanty (2,613). It’s the eighth time Skattebo has gone over 150 scrimmage yards in a game this season.
Beyond the two frontrunners, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who has made a stronger case to be in New York City. — Khan
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Cam Skattebo strikes a pose and makes a statement: He belongs on the sport’s biggest stage
Is Arizona State a sleeper to make a run?
Maybe even more than surprise story of the year Indiana, Arizona State looks interesting in the Playoff given its offensive weaponry. That offense could find sledding tougher in cold conditions on the road in the first round — at Penn State or at Notre Dame, for example. If ASU gets a bye to a bowl quarterfinal, the fast track should help.
Either way, Skattebo is one of the top weapons in the Playoff, quarterback Sam Leavitt is playing at a high level and provides a run threat, and ASU was fine against Iowa State without top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who’s out for the season. — Rexrode
Iowa State is out of the Playoff race. What’s next?
The loss ended the Cyclones’ Playoff hopes and another goal that was talked about within the program: winning a conference championship for the first time since 1912. The fact that there’s any disappointment around Iowa State is a testament to Matt Campbell, already the winningest coach in program history. He has led a perennial Big 12 also-ran to two conference title games — Iowa State lost to Oklahoma in 2020 — and a program-record 10 victories this season. If the Cyclones win their bowl game (the Pop-Tarts Bowl is one possibility), they’ll likely finish ranked for the fourth time ever. — Baker
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Boise State, Arizona State lock up bids
ACC: No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson
Time: 8 p.m. ET | TV: ABC | Location: Charlotte
If SMU wins, it is in position for a first-round bye, while Clemson would be eliminated. If Clemson wins, it will be in a debate with Arizona State for a first-round bye or a road game, while SMU would be in a bubble debate with Alabama for the last at-large spot.
Big Ten: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State
Time: 8 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Location: Indianapolis
The winner will get a first-round bye, while the loser is likely to host a first-round game. Follow our live coverage here.
(Top photo of Trevor Etienne: Butch Dill / Getty Images)
