The Washington Commanders clinched a playoff berth with one regular-season game remaining, but Dan Quinn doesn’t intend to have the team coast into the postseason.
Sunday’s contest in Dallas has playoff-seeding ramifications for the 11-5 Commanders. Washington currently holds the sixth seed over the Green Bay Packers. Stumble against the Cowboys, and the team could fall to No. 7.
“We’re going to go after it as hard as we can,” Quinn said during Monday’s media availability.
Depending on the results of Week 18, Washington would face either the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round. Knowing that the 13-3 Eagles host the seventh seed may be the difference in how much Quinn pushes certain buttons for the regular-season finale.
“I think the seeding portion is really important,” said Quinn, hours after a thrilling 30-24 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons. “That’s what we discussed as a team.”
Positives in Washington’s fourth consecutive win were headlined by three Jayden Daniels touchdown passes, including the game winner to tight end Zach Ertz from 2 yards out. Plenty of issues on both sides of the ball also require fixing before facing any team in the playoffs.
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Quinn harped on Washington’s 13 penalties against Atlanta with local reporters. The offensive line and defensive secondary were the primary culprits. Other than Daniels’ career-high 127 rushing yards, the ground game remained inefficient. Terry McLaurin’s latest surge slowed as the Falcons held the wide receiver to one catch on seven targets.
“We thought we left some plays out there,” Quinn continued. “Leveling up heading into this week with Dallas would be important.”
Gearing up this week for the showdown at Jerry World isn’t only about getting revenge on the Cowboys for a 34-26 loss at Northwest Stadium in Week 12. There’s an old boxing axiom appropriate for this moment: Styles make good fights. Beyond shoring up weaknesses, Washington will be better suited against specific opponents. The prep begins this week.
Let’s consider the scenarios.
Injuries
Even if Quinn is extra determined to win against his previous employer, it would be surprising if Washington relied on certain injured players.
Cornerback Marshon Lattimore’s lingering hamstring injury caused the four-time Pro Bowler to miss a fifth game for the Commanders since the trade deadline deal with the New Orleans Saints. Despite only playing two games with Washington, his absence was loudly noticeable. Replacement Michael Davis’ coverage mishaps and two pass interference penalties were painful. According to Pro Football Focus, the Falcons completed 8 of 9 passes targeted at Davis. Having Lattimore available for the playoffs is more critical than the sixth seed.
Pass rushers are flying at Daniels and generating pressure even when Washington’s offensive line is at full strength. It isn’t entering Dallas week. Center Tyler Biadasz (ankle) and tackle Cornelius Lucas (groin) joined starting right tackle Andrew Wylie (groin) on the injury report during Sunday night’s game.
Last week, Quinn said it’s possible running back Austin Ekeler returns to the active roster following a second concussion this season. The shifty playmaker is eligible to come off injured reserve this week. The offense misses his pass catching. That Ekeler said he suffered memory loss after each concussion puts this decision into uncertain territory.
Washington also played against the Falcons without wide receiver Dyami Brown (hamstring), safety Tyler Owens (ankle) and linebacker Jordan Magee (hamstring). Among those in the playoff-clincher, Ertz often rests during a portion of practice week and played through a recent shoulder issue. His middle-of-the-field presence is vital for Daniels.
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If the Commanders beat the Cowboys …
Washington is the sixth seed, heading to either Los Angeles or Tampa for Super Wild Card Weekend. A Packers loss to the Chicago Bears in Green Bay would also clinch the No. 6 spot for Washington. Should the Rams fall at home to the Seahawks in Week 18 and the Buccaneers defeat the Saints in front of the pirate ship, Tampa Bay would rise to the third seed with Los Angeles at No. 4.
The Rams, winners of five straight, have the passing game chops to torment the Commanders’ secondary, especially if Lattimore isn’t back from his hamstring injury. Matthew Stafford is miles better than any passer Washington has defeated since Week 4, and running back Kyren Williams (1,299 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns) is problematic. We’d also get the story arc of Sean McVay facing his former team.
That said, the Rams are scuffling lately. Since dropping 44 points in a Week 14 victory over the Buffalo Bills, they’ve scored 12, 19 and 13 in their next three games. Stafford previously won a Super Bow with the Rams, but his play this season falls behind the Bucs’ Baker Mayfield and Eagles’ Jalen Hurts. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is a route-running machine, but Cooper Kupp’s production nose-dived during this three-game offensive skid with only four receptions for 53 yards.
Besides, while this game would be 3,000 miles away from the DMV, it is a good bet that Commanders fans would invade SoFi Stadium the way other fan bases have in Landover, Md., over the years.
The Buccaneers handled the Commanders in Week 1 with a one-sided 37-20 home win. Daniels has improved tremendously since his NFL debut, but Tampa Bay upgraded its ground game with rookie Bucky Irving. The reigning three-time division champs have scored at least 40 points in two of the last three weeks and rank sixth in offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
One advantage facing the Buccaneers is travel. Assuming the Commanders return home from Dallas, they would fly 2 1/2 hours to Tampa and remain in the same time zone rather than a five-hour trek to the West Coast, likely altering their usual practice plan.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers opened the season with a 17-point victory over the Commanders. (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
If the Commanders lose to the Cowboys …
The sixth seed remains possible with a Packers loss. But Green Bay handing Chicago its 11th consecutive loss and Washington falling to 11-6 would mean a 7 seed for the Commanders and a third matchup against Philadelphia.
There’s a solid argument for familiarity shrinking the perceived talent gap, which favors the Eagles. The teams split two regular-season meetings. The thrilling 36-33 comeback win for Washington in Week 16 helped further cement Daniels’ Offensive Rookie of the Year case. McLaurin made a dazzling over-the-head catch for a 32-yard touchdown after being held to one reception in Washington’s 26-18 loss at Philadelphia in Week 11.
For the Eagles, MVP candidate Saquon Barkley dominated Washington’s defense in both games. Barkley rushed for a total of 296 yards and four touchdowns on 55 carries (5.4). Philadelphia’s defensive front, led by tackle Jalen Carter, harassed Daniels and Washington’s running backs in both meetings.
The wild card is Hurts’ health. The quarterback suffered a concussion on Philadelphia’s second offensive series at Washington and proceeded to rest in Sunday’s blowout over the Cowboys. The Commanders scored 36 points against one of the league’s best defenses, but the game might have been out of reach with a healthy Hurts. Philadelphia led 14-0 after that second drive and by 13 points late in the third quarter.
The Eagles could logically sit Hurts in a meaningless game against the New York Giants, so we may not see the tush-push hero until the postseason. Backup Kenny Pickett can direct the offense but lacks Hurts’ playmaking ability.
If the Eagles match the Commanders’ competitiveness, making it a talent versus talent affair with a healthy Hurts, Philadelphia is the clear favorite. Just don’t sleep on the power of facing a division rival in the postseason.
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(Top photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
