TALLADEGA, Ala. — The ballad of Denny Hamlin’s playoff history is one of misfortune striking him at inopportune times, leading to his annual ouster from NASCAR’s postseason. Each year, some form of bad luck seems to hinder his pursuit of a first-ever Cup Series championship to the point even Hamlin has stated he’s “f—ing cursed.”
Well, it might be time to put that narrative to bed after a lucky break during Sunday’s playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway significantly improved his position in the standings.
The change of fortune centers around a decision by Hamlin’s crew chief, Chris Gabehart, that called for a two-tire pit stop during a late-race green-flag sequence while most everyone else went with fuel only. By spending additional time on pit road, Hamlin lost contact with the draft, seemingly dooming him to a bottom-run finish if the race stayed green.
But races at Talladega rarely stay green toward the finish, and Sunday’s was no exception. Four laps from the scheduled finish, and with Hamlin running 32nd, a caution came out for a multi-car pileup on the backstretch.
Contact at the front of the field, and multiple #NASCARPlayoffs drivers are collected. pic.twitter.com/DoefQLRTOe
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 6, 2024
A total of 23 drivers were involved but not Hamlin, who was so far back he had plenty of time to slow down and safely navigate through the mess.
Without the caution, he would’ve surely left Talladega in a points hole heading into next week’s Round 2 elimination race at the Charlotte Roval. At the time of the accident, Hamlin was tentatively 17 points below the cut line, a deficit that would’ve been challenging to overcome.
Instead, Hamlin rallied back to finish 10th. This result, plus the fact that several other playoff-eligible drivers were involved in the accident, vaulted him 30 points above the elimination line leaving Talladega.
Being 30 points up instead of 17 points down is a dramatic difference. One could even say Hamlin experienced some playoff luck for once.
“It was looking grim, and then all of a sudden, I had some good luck,” said Hamlin, who drives for Joe Gibbs Racing and also co-owns 23XI Racing, one of the two teams that filed an antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR last week.
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Good luck is a rare occurrence for Hamlin in the playoffs. More often than not, the racing gods seem to have it out for him. He’s basically NASCAR’s version of Charlie Brown, and his football is the Cup championship.
A sampling of the tough beats Hamlin has had to swallow:
— He was eliminated from the playoffs in 2015 when the roof hatch on his car came loose during the Talladega race, necessitating repairs that dropped him in the field and put him in position to later be collected in an accident.
— Two years ago, Hamlin was ousted in the semifinal round when, in the elimination race, Ross Chastain improbably pulled off the “Hail Melon” on the final lap that allowed Chastain to pass several cars to advance to the championship finale. Without Chastain’s desperate move, Hamlin would’ve raced for the title.
— Last year, a mechanical failure related to the power steering caused him to crash during a semifinal-round race at Homestead. That crash proved the difference between advancing and elimination, as Hamlin fell short by eight points.
Knowing his penchant for being snakebit, Hamlin and his No. 11 team entered the season with a different mindset than in years past. The goal was to perform better during the regular season so they could accrue bonus points that would be beneficial come the playoffs, especially if bad luck struck again.
That strategy worked through 24 of 26 regular-season races, with Hamlin winning three times, earning 15 bonus points, and being in contention for the regular-season championship, which would’ve netted him an additional 15 bonus points. It all gave the impression that a deep and potentially prosperous playoff run was on the horizon for the driver whose 54 career wins are the most in NASCAR history for a driver without a title and who four times had advanced to the championship finale.
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Then Hamlin’s so-called curse reared its head via a penalty completely beyond his control. A mistake by Toyota caused Hamlin’s team to violate NASCAR’s engine rule. Hamlin lost 75 driver points from his regular-season tally plus 10 playoff bonus points — points that certainly would’ve helped mitigate any misfortune, such as losing the draft during the playoff race at Talladega.
Nothing can change Hamlin’s poor playoff luck in prior years, and one serendipitous caution doesn’t necessarily signal this is the season he will finally win a championship after 19 years of trying. But Sunday was a rare break in his favor.
“I’m just thankful that we finally got out of here with some good points, because it’s really just about spinning the luck dial and we finally got it,” Gabehart said.
Said Hamlin: “I feel happy about it. I mean, ultimately, if you would have said I’d be where I’m at, I would have certainly took it before this race happened. So, I think we’re very fortunate today.”
It’s not hard to see a viable path for Hamlin to advance to the championship finale. His 30-point edge going into the Round 2 elimination race provides some cushion should a disaster occur. After Charlotte is a semifinal round featuring three of his best tracks (Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville).
Should Hamlin finally win the championship, the decisive moment may very well be Sunday, when he was four laps away from seeing his title hopes effectively vanish. Sometimes, though, it pays to be lucky rather than good. And if you can be both, well, that’s even better.
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(Photo of Denny Hamlin before Sunday’s race: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
