Since 2011, 23 players aged 20 have enjoyed successful rookie seasons in the AHL with Edmonton Oilers affiliates.
The Oklahoma City Barons moved to Bakersfield and became the Condors in 2015, and those two cities have played host to some exceptional young talent.
The biggest name is Evan Bouchard, and the biggest surprise is the number of talented kids who have recently played well in the AHL at 20. In the group of 23, 13 arrived in the last five seasons, and Matt Savoie (1-1-2 in three games so far) could extend that total by one more in 2024-25.
Some of those players (Mike Kesselring, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod) are now in the NHL and playing for other teams.
Bouchard and goaltender Stuart Skinner are the only current Oilers players who spent extended time at 20 with the Condors and then went on to NHL success.
There are more coming. Here’s a list of the current Bakersfield prospects who arrived and played well at 20, with their NHL ceiling should they continue to develop:
| Player | Current Age | Possible NHL future |
|---|---|---|
|
20 |
Scoring winger |
|
|
21 |
Rugged bottom-six centre |
|
|
21 |
Tough third pairing blue |
|
|
21 |
Limited, he’s lagging as a scorer |
|
|
24 |
Backup goaltender |
Savoie just arrived, and has the highest ceiling. No surprise, since he was the No. 9 pick in 2022. Chances are Savoie doesn’t spend years in the minors; his skill level will get him a recall when he’s ready.
Matvey Petrov is a prospect in danger of getting lost in the flood due to lack of playing time in the early months of his pro career. There’s a fix, more on that later.
Max Wanner is a rock-solid young defenceman who played a rugged style. The Oilers have been developing those player types in the minors for decades.
Jayden Grubbe is an interesting prospect. Acquired from the New York Rangers system in the spring of 2023, he impressed as a centre at 20 in the AHL. He held his own as a rookie and is off to a great start offensively this year.
That isn’t Grubbe’s game, but any offence will be welcome. On Friday night, he delivered three assists while also playing a strong two-way game.
First pro goal for James Stefan. Great rush by Jayden Grubbe. pic.twitter.com/ZMDNzYlfDK
— bcurlock (@bcurlock) October 19, 2024
Unlike most of Edmonton’s recent forward grads from junior, Grubbe has size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) and hockey acumen away from the puck. His offence comes from turning over pucks, going to the net and winning battles along the wall.
That kind of skill set is always in vogue for NHL coaches.
The Oilers have had success in developing centres in the AHL over the years, but it’s usually college players. Shawn Horcoff 20 years ago, Chris VandeVelde, and currently Canadian college grad Noah Philp have all had AHL success but are older prospects.
College players are a separate category when turning pro. They are older, their games have been given the chance to mature outside the pro game.
Players like Petrov, coming out of Canadian junior hockey, often take the long way to the NHL.
Shaun Van Allen graduated from the WHL Saskatoon Blades in the fall of 1987. He would play in 352 AHL regular season games, plus 40 in the IHL and 23 in the NHL before establishing himself with the fledgling Anaheim Mighty Ducks in 1993-94.
Modern NHL teams rarely have such an opportunity to hold on to a player for that long without more time with the parent club. Credit to Van Allen, he had a long and successful NHL career and had to wait to be awarded what he had long since earned.
Last season, the Oilers had several young forward prospects who could not make a dent in the AHL lineup.
Led by Petrov, Xavier Bourgault (traded to the Ottawa Senators over the summer), Carter Savoie (now with the ECHL Greenville Swamp Rabbits) and Tyler Tullio (dealt to the Buffalo Sabres) all fought for playing time because they had similar skill sets and couldn’t move the needle offensively.
It’s a problem.
What can the Oilers do?
The NCAA is moving toward easing the rules that restrict players in Canadian junior leagues (CHL) from playing college hockey in the United States.
Scott Wheeler at The Athletic wrote about the situation recently, giving us a great view of possible outcomes for players, colleges and junior leagues in Canada.
For a team like the Oilers, losing a CHL draft pick to NCAA hockey after he is drafted carries some danger. Signing rules for NCAA prospects have more loopholes, and a drafting team can end up with a lesser player in trade (the John Marino deal) or nothing at all.
That makes the development of players even more important once they sign and turn pro at 20.
In the early 1960s, the NHL created a unique league designed for 20-year-old kids coming out of junior hockey. These players, like Bourgault and other Condors one year ago, found it difficult to gain regular playing time in the AHL.
Part of that came from too many prospects developing (or not developing) at the same time. Oilers management took care of that problem with an active trading summer. The Bakersfield roster offers more opportunity to men like Matt Savoie and Petrov.
Much of it came from a lack of playing time. These young wingers were all hurting each other’s careers, and the coaching staff couldn’t find a way to get everyone going.
I wrote about the CPHL a few years ago and Edmonton could have used it last year. The CPHL would be even more useful to NHL teams now.
Fans might see it as a rival to the ECHL, but the league rules (each club carried only 15 players and 10 of those had to be under 23) dictated that youngsters would see plenty of ice.
Fans often get angry at scouting staffs, or the AHL coach (Colin Chaulk took a lot of heat last year when trying to play five wingers with only two open spots available) when prospects falter.
Grubbe (and Wanner) didn’t need a league like the CPHL, but Bourgault did need a lower pro league he could play in. He couldn’t win puck battles. If he had gone to college, he might have turned pro a more complete player.
That won’t be lost on prospects and their agents.
Many NHL personnel I have spoken to over the years lay most of the failures squarely on the player.
Evidence suggests otherwise. The biggest fault by general managers in the NHL is forcing teenagers into prominent roles when they are unready. It’s short-sighted, rarely works and sets player and organization off a natural development path.
It’s also true of some players when they are 20.
This year’s 20-year-old forward is Savoie. He has two points in two games, and as a high pick should be able to keep pace with AHL veterans.
Grubbe didn’t have to worry about offence and was physically mature at 20; same as Wanner, who plays like he’s 25.
Chaulk has an easier time this season because management pruned the total of undersized skill wingers.
He also has it better now because the Condors’ centre depth chart is a marvel.
Lane Pederson is one of the more skilled pivots in the league, and he’s a smart player who knows how to suppress opposition forays into the Bakersfield end.
Philp is big, strong and is showing zero rust from missing all of last season.
Grubbe was supposed to be the fourth-line centre but leads the team in points.
James Hamblin is an undersized Swiss Army knife who can fill any role on an AHL forward line expertly.
Bottom line
The NHL prospect map is changing. Wheeler’s article tells us the certain and the uncertain, and there is danger for an organization like Edmonton.
A strong second league like the CPHL of the 1960s, and four strong centres who can make things happen in the AHL, are keys to developing wingers into NHL players.
Failure is not an option.
(Photo of Matt Savoie: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
