Fantasy football Week 4 recap: The best way to solve the tight end scoring slump

This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 4 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

Every fantasy manager has roster problems that need solving four weeks into a fantasy season, but this year it seems just about every fantasy manager is lamenting about a lack of production from the tight end position. As if we needed another reminder, we got one Sunday night when Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews put up zero fantasy points for the second consecutive week. On average, Andrews was drafted No. 47 overall in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues and was the third tight end off the board. 

How bad has it gotten for Andrews’ managers? Coming into the season, he was expected to put up 12.5 points per game in PPR leagues. Instead, he has 12 points for the entire season to date.

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This position is one that the fantasy community always has an issue with, but in 2024, the lack of production seems exceptionally bad. How bad is it, though? And are there any solutions when the waiver wire depth at the position feels non-existent?

Yes, there’s a problem with tight end fantasy scoring in 2024

One way to determine this is to see what percentage of fantasy scoring the tight end position accounts for among the three pass-catching positions of tight end, wide receiver and running back.

This method will provide a historical benchmark dating back to 2014, giving us 10 full years of historical reference, and then compare those percentages to the 2024 campaign.

Let’s start with wide receivers. From 2014-2023, this position generated an average of 59.6 percent of pass-catching points. The 2023 season weighed in at 61.0 percent.

Next up is running backs. This position accounted for an average of 18.2 percent of pass-catching fantasy points, with 2023 at 16.8 percent.

Tight ends accounted for 22.2 percent of pass-catching fantasy points in this range, with the 2023 season landing exactly on that 22.2 percent average.

So, how does 2024 stack up compared to those norms through the Week 4 Sunday matchups?

Wide receiver: 63.4 percent, 3.8 percent above the previous 10-year average.

Running back: 18.0 percent, 1.2 percent above the 10-year average.

Tight ends: 18.6 percent, 3.6 percent below the 10-year average.

That 3.6 percent drop off is a 16.2 percent relative decline in percentage of fantasy points, so fantasy managers aren’t overreacting – there actually is a significant scoring problem at the tight end position.

Okay, but how bad is it really?

The tight end scoring problem shows up quite quickly when looking at the individual player production paces. Only six tight ends have averaged 10+ points per game so far this year, and one (the Chicago Bears’ Cole Kmet) cleared that bar by only five-hundredths of a point. 

Now, let’s compare that double-digit PPG TE level with the figures for each of the past 10 years.

• 2023 – 11
• 2022 – 8
• 2021 – 12
• 2020 – 10
• 2019 – 10
• 2018 – 9
• 2017 – 8
• 2016 – 16
• 2015 – 16
• 2014 – 12

Oh, for the days of the mid-2010s when there were double-digit PPG tight ends galore.

At the current pace, this year will easily have the fewest 10-plus PPG tight ends in more than a decade. In addition, of the six players with a 10+ PPG pace (George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson and Cole Kmet), three of them (Kittle, McBride and Ferguson) have dealt with notable injury issues that have already caused them to miss a game this year. With those potential absences in mind, this year’s double-digit PPG number is not guaranteed to hold up.

What should fantasy managers do?

To borrow a phrase from the classic movie “Margin Call,” now that we know the music has stopped, what can we do about it?

For starters, the first thing to do is to set the floor. With so few quality tight ends out there, the potential for a very low score that can cost your team a win is much higher than usual.

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One way to help avoid this is to trade low for some of the underperformers at this position, like Evan Engram. Sidelined with injury, he’s scored only 1.5 points so far this year while missing three games. Once Engram gets healthy, there is a very good chance he will return to TE1 form.

The trade cost will be higher for some of the current 10-plus PPG players noted earlier, yet even some of those players might be acquired at a discount due to recent production woes. Kmet had only 6.4 points in Week 4, Bowers tallied only 5.1 points, and McBride missed Week 4 due to a concussion and scored only 5.5 points in Week 3.

There’s even a case to be made in trading for Andrews, a former scoring star. While Andrews may not return to his former elite scoring pace, and his recent results won’t help you set the scoring floor mentioned earlier, his bounce-back potential makes him worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues, especially when noting he will cost next to nothing in terms of trade value.

Another step is to consider streaming favorable matchups in the same way that many managers do when playing D/STs or kickers.

To help with this, I’ve put together a list of tight end schedule strength matchups over the next five weeks. My system assigns each weekly tight end coverage matchup a color grade, with green being highly favorable, yellow being neutral and red being unfavorable. The following chart details when each team’s tight end is currently slated to face a green-rated matchup during that span. Teams that don’t have a green-rated matchup in this span have been excluded from the list.

Tucker Kraft should be a waiver priority this week, but the standouts on this list are Cade Otton, Evan Engram, Brock Bowers and Zach Ertz. These players have shown they can produce quality point totals at times, and there are many favorable opportunities for them to do so in the near future.

Another option is T.J. Hockenson. He is currently available in just over 30 percent of leagues and could be returning to the Vikings’ starting lineup as soon as Week 7. Given how well that offense has played, it is worth stashing him on an IR spot or on the bench to get the upside potential he may provide upon his return.

(Top photo of Mark Andrews: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)