NEW ORLEANS, La. — Marcus Freeman has been building Notre Dame for this game, another chance to finally beat one of the elites on the big stage. It feels like a huge moment for Freeman’s program.
Georgia, meanwhile, seems to be seeing how long it can keep this ride going. It got over the national championship hump a few years ago. Then it got another. Now it would love another, but it’s had an uneven season, by its standards, and comes to the Sugar Bowl starting its backup quarterback.
It’s about time to pack away the analysis and see how things fall. But first, a few final thoughts and observations from the scene of this pending College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
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1. The Stockton charisma factor
The emerging narrative has been that while Gunner Stockton may not have Carson Beck’s arm or experience, he’s more well-liked and thus his teammates will play harder for him. Witness a moment at Monday’s media day.
Sean McDonough, who will be calling the game for ESPN, was talking to Stockton, gathering material. McDonough started asking the quarterback about the likability narrative: “Talking to your teammates and coaches …”
The question was interrupted by a horde of Georgia offensive linemen crashing the interview, yelling “Gunner! Gunner!”
“First start ever, how you feeling?” asked Jared Wilson.
“I’m excited,” Stockton replied. “I get to take a snap from Jared Wilson.”
“Mr Gunner! Mr. Gunner!” Xavier Truss shouted. “How do you keep that truck so clean?”
“Can I get a ride in it one day?” asked another.
“Me too!” another chimed in.
“Might have to do it one day at a time,” Stockton said, with that wide, ever-present smile.
The linemen walked away after a few seconds, while McDonough observed, “They really seem to like him.”
And it’s true. But there’s also a risk of the narrative going too far. The linemen were crashing other player interviews, for one thing. And as well as the team played when Stockton entered in the SEC Championship Game, Georgia has been a second-half team all season. It also wouldn’t be the first time a team elevated its play once the backup quarterback went in, the subconscious knowledge of thinking everyone else had to play harder.
It’s also not a narrative to throw away. Football is an emotion-driven sport, and Stockton’s personality could have an impact similar to Jake Fromm when he took over in 2017. But the important thing is playing well: Fromm was decent in his starting debut at Notre Dame but not spectacular (4.9 yards per attempt, an interception). He also came through in the big moments, with help from Terry Godwin.
The area that probably isn’t getting enough focus is how Stockton will do in managing the game. Beck had two years of starting experience, reading the defense before the snap, changing in and out of plays and blocking schemes. Stockton at least has three years in the system, prepared this year as the backup, and is a film room nut.
It’s very possible all these intangibles matter and mitigate any drop from Beck to Stockton. The moment shouldn’t be too big for him, as he showed in the SEC championship. But Beck’s arm talent and experience are going to be missed. No one should be dismissing Georgia’s chances without him. But there’s not enough data to be super confident about Stockton either.
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2. Georgia’s real two key players?
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is the tailback getting the most buzz, and understandably so. But what if it’s Georgia’s two tailbacks who end up being the game-changers?
Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier are dynamic runners who extend plays when they get a little space. Notre Dame has been good against the run but is now without its best run stopper, defensive lineman Rylie Mills, while Georgia’s offensive line is as healthy as it’s been all year. The Bulldogs’ tight ends, key to the blocking effort, are also healthy and go three-deep.
Georgia has played five games against teams with better run defenses on paper: No. 1 Ole Miss, No. 6 Tennessee, No. 8 Auburn and No. 11 Texas (twice). In those games, Georgia is only averaging 3.8 yards per rush (not counting sacks). But Etienne only had six rushes against Ole Miss before he got hurt, and he missed the entire Tennessee game, while guard Tate Ratledge missed Auburn and the first Texas game and only briefly played at Ole Miss.
This isn’t to say Georgia is going to run all over Notre Dame. It’s just to say that Georgia will almost certainly test to see if its line can overpower a Mills-less Fighting Irish front, then see if the second level of defense lacks the speed to contain Etienne and Frazier.
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3. Special teams
In a game that could be close and could be low-scoring, Brett Thorson’s absence looms large. Georgia was third nationally in net punting this year, which accounts for Thorson’s punts itself and the lack of return yards. When Ole Miss had a 2-yard return, it was the first positive punt return for a Georgia opponent since the 2022 season. (Tennessee and then Texas did have long returns.)
Georgia hasn’t said whether it will be freshman Drew Miller, who was one of the nation’s top punting recruits, or one of the walk-ons in Thorson’s place. Either way, there will be pressure on that guy, but the good news is Notre Dame hasn’t been a strong punt returning team: 104th nationally at 5.5 yards per return.
Georgia should have an advantage in field goal kicking: Peyton Woodring has been dependable (41 for 47), including 3 for 6 from 50 yards and beyond. Notre Dame’s field goals have been more of an adventure, with Mitch Jeter 8 for 15 this year, including 2 for his last 6. Maybe it will help that Jeter will be kicking in a dome for the first time this season.
Otherwise, neither team seems to have a particular advantage. But there’s a long history of CFP games, especially Georgia’s, turning on special teams plays that nobody sees coming. Maybe this is another one.
4. The timing
Both coaches were asked Tuesday whether the first-round bye gave Georgia an advantage or Notre Dame was better off for having played.
“Depends on who wins,” Smart said.
Freeman laughed. But as he would later point out, it was something he and his team hadn’t thought much about because Notre Dame, as an independent, had no chance for a bye and always knew it would be playing in the first round.
In Georgia’s case, it appears it was better off getting the time off, considering the time it had to prepare a new starting quarterback and heal many of its banged-up players. Smart also has a good history with time off, going 7-1 in bowl games, including semifinal CFP games.
But all those games were against teams that also had almost a month off. Does Notre Dame benefit from being less rusty? This being a new format, there just isn’t much data.
“There’s risk of injury,” Smart said. “I think when you ask Marcus that question, he lost a very dominant player, and there’s a risk of injury in that game. But there is a level of concern when you haven’t tackled and gone live. With the way college football is now with the portal, and you lose players, you just can’t afford to not have depth in practice like you really want to practice.
“So it’s a challenge both ways. We studied all the NFL teams that have byes verses the wild card teams that get hot and continue to play.”
Even then, the NFL is an imperfect comparison because that’s two weeks off versus almost four weeks off in the case of college football.
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5. The bottom line
This is a coin-flip game. The two teams mirror each other in a lot of ways. Both are physical, both have mobile quarterbacks.
Notre Dame has looked very impressive this season (other than its Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois), but it has only two wins over currently ranked teams. So is Notre Dame a product of its schedule or a legitimate title contender? We’re about to find out.
Georgia is the opposite issue: A very hard schedule has produced a very rocky product. Throw in the uncertainty of how Stockton will play, and is this team due for its final fall, or is it a team of destiny? We’re about to find out.
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
