With two weekends remaining in the college football regular season, the Big 12 championship race is simple — and one false step away from complete pandemonium.
BYU and Colorado, tied atop the conference standings at 6-1 in league play, both control their own destiny. The path to the Big 12 title game isn’t necessarily easy, but it is straightforward.
However, seven other programs — meaning nine of the league’s 16 total schools — are still mathematically alive to reach the championship game entering this weekend, should BYU and/or Colorado slip in the coming weeks.
Officially, the Big 12 conference office is commenting only on the two scenarios in which teams can clinch a spot in the championship game this Saturday:
• BYU can secure a berth with a win over Arizona State and a Utah win over Iowa State
• Colorado can secure a berth with a win over Kansas, as well as wins by BYU and Utah
Smart move by the Big 12. In this mega-conference landscape, tiebreaker scenarios are so confusing that it took the Big Ten until late Tuesday afternoon to realize Oregon had already locked up a spot in its league title game.
In the meantime, here’s a not-too-in-the-weeds assessment of how the Big 12 championship race could unfold, including pathways for the top four teams in the standings, potential chaos outcomes and possible impact on the College Football Playoff field.
BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12)
Remaining games: at Arizona State, vs. Houston
Even after last week’s loss to Kansas, all BYU has to do is win its final two games, starting with a high-stakes matchup against the Sun Devils. There are scenarios where BYU can lose to Arizona State (or win that game and lose to Houston the following week) and still reach the championship, but the Cougars would no longer have authority over their fate.
Colorado (8-2, 6-1 Big 12)
Remaining games: at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State
The Buffs are in a similar situation to BYU: If Colorado wins out, it’s in, and it can also nail down a spot in the title game this weekend with a win and some good fortune.
But if the Jayhawks play spoiler again, Colorado will need to beat Oklahoma State on Black Friday and get the right combination of losses among BYU, Arizona State and Iowa State.
A loss by either of the top two schools would really muck things up, which is exactly what the rest of these teams are hoping for.
Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12)
Remaining games: vs. BYU, at Arizona
The Sun Devils almost control their own destiny, thanks to the upset of Kansas State last Saturday and upcoming showdown with the Cougars in Tempe. But there is one possible scenario where Arizona State wins its final two games and doesn’t make the championship: If Colorado and Iowa State also win out, and BYU loses out — meaning it loses to ASU this Saturday and to Houston in the finale — there’s a tiebreaker scenario in which Iowa State would jump Arizona State for the second-place spot against Colorado.
The Sun Devils will have to knock off BYU, then might have to root for it to bounce back against Houston, while still having to deal with its own rivalry game against Arizona.
If ASU loses to BYU, there could still be a very narrow path to the championship, but it would require a finale win against Arizona and an utter collapse by everyone else in the top half of the standings.
Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12)
Remaining games: at Utah, vs. Kansas State
Iowa State needs to win out — there isn’t a scenario where it can lose one of the last two and still sneak in. And even if the Cyclones do win out, it will still need one loss each by BYU, Colorado and Arizona State, or for BYU and Colorado to both lose out.
Three-loss Chaos Group
Kansas State (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) remaining games: vs. Cincinnati, at Iowa State
Baylor (6-4, 4-3 Big 12) remaining games: at Houston, vs. Kansas
TCU (6-4, 4-3 Big 12) remaining games: vs. Arizona, at Cincinnati
Texas Tech (6-4, 4-3 Big 12) remaining games: at Oklahoma State, vs. West Virginia
West Virginia (5-5, 4-3 Big 12) remaining games: vs. UCF, at Texas Tech
Every team that enters this weekend with three conference losses is still alive — but just barely. Each will need to win out, and since West Virginia plays Texas Tech in the final week, one of those two is guaranteed to get eliminated. Kansas State would have to defeat Iowa State in Farmageddon. The Chaos Group also needs either BYU or Colorado to lose out, and for Arizona State and Iowa State to both lose at least once. Any scenario that ends with a pair of two-loss teams above them would obviously be disqualifying.
There’s a good chance this group gets thinned out Saturday, despite none of them facing each other. But in the spirit of Big 12 Chaos, there are a couple of scenarios that can end with an eight-way tie for first place at 6-3 in league play. Arguably the wildest would deliver a Big 12 championship between 8-4 Baylor and 8-4 Texas Tech. That, or West Virginia maneuvering its way to the title game at 7-5 overall.
So yes, I’m telling you there’s a chance. We’ll see if it survives the weekend.
CFP implications
BYU tumbled from No. 6 all the way to No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings, behind No. 12 Boise State and No. 13 SMU. Because Boise State is ranked ahead of BYU, the top-ranked Big 12 team, the Broncos are projected into the No. 4 seed and first-round bye, with BYU projected to the No. 12 seed as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Elsewhere in the rankings, Colorado moved up to No. 16, Arizona State entered at No. 21 and Iowa State re-entered at No. 22.
Boise State’s only loss came on a last-second field goal to top-ranked Oregon. Slotting BYU behind SMU is harder to understand, considering both teams have one loss and SMU’s loss came to BYU. Ranking based on head-to-head matchups is not always cut and dried for the selection committee, but this one is.
For now, it also doesn’t matter. Miami, ranked No. 8, is projected as the ACC champion and into the No. 3 seed in the 12-team bracket, earning a first-round bye.
If BYU — or Colorado, or Arizona State or Iowa State — runs the table to win the Big 12 title, it’s plausible that team would jump ahead of a one-loss Boise State that wins the Mountain West title to give the Big 12 one of those first-round byes. It’s similarly plausible that a one-loss Boise stays in front of the Big 12 champ; the Broncos could potentially even leap a two-loss ACC champion. Regardless, if one of those four Big 12 teams wins out to get the league crown, they will make the 12-team CFP.
Where things would get interesting is if the conference ends up with a three-loss (or four-loss … or five-loss!) league champ. Then the possibility of Army or Tulane winning the AAC and stealing that fifth and final automatic Playoff bid enters the equation, which could lock the Big 12 out of the 12-team field entirely.
It’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible.
(Photo of Colorado coach Deion Sanders: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
