How close to balanced are the Edmonton Oilers this season?

The Edmonton Oilers have enjoyed significant playoff success often in recent seasons.

The 2017 run (Edmonton winning the opening round against the San Jose Sharks, then losing in a long series against the Anaheim Ducks) featured a wildly unbalanced team that relied too heavily on superstar Connor McDavid, emerging star Leon Draisaitl and stellar goaltending by veteran Cam Talbot.

After a dry period, the club started pushing in 2022 (lost in the third round), 2023 (lost in the second round) and 2024 (lost in the Stanley Cup Final).

Most of the previous seasons featured extreme strengths and significant weaknesses, a baffling issue with so much elite talent on the roster.

How close to balanced is this edition of the Oilers? How close was the roster last season?

What does balance look like? 

A balanced roster has success on both special teams and especially owns five-on-five playing time. A balanced team would deliver top-10 numbers in important categories like goal share, goal suppression and shot share.

A balanced team would boast four lines and three pairings with over 50 percent of the on-ice goals, and goaltending that was inside the top 10.

It’s a difficult accomplishment and most teams fall far short. Here are the Oilers teams since 2022-23 and their performances in key areas.

All numbers via Natural Stat Trick

The 2022-23 team looks more or less like every Oilers team since 2016-17. Great and obvious strengths, expected goals five-on-five implying higher ground that was never reached.

The 2023-24 Oilers were balanced. That team had the look of a Stanley Cup winner, and the team stopped just one win shy of the goal. The team was in the top 10 almost everywhere overall, shy only in the five-on-five save percentage and in penalty-killing success.

Lesser teams have won the Stanley Cup.

It’s no coincidence that the strongest team since the 2006 Oilers (coached by Craig MacTavish) achieved balance courtesy of a meticulous coaching staff who emphasized attention to detail.

The Edmonton coaching staff, led by head coach Kris Knoblauch with defensive coaches Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart, had the Oilers blueliners playing a more aggressive game without the puck (standing up at the blue line, tighter coverage down low) and a more precise passing game when in possession.

This season looks like a slight downbeat overall, but the five-on-five expected goal share is strong and in recent weeks the team’s overall look has improved.

Last 27 games

The overall numbers above are skewed by Edmonton’s first three games of the season.

In the last 27 games, Edmonton ranks No. 6 in five-on-five goal share (56 percent), fifth in goals per 60 (2.75) and ninth in goals-against per 60 (2.13). The low goals-against five-on-five comes with a .920 save percentage (No. 9 across the NHL). The expected goal share is 57 percent, meaning the Oilers are in the top 10 in all five-on-five categories across the last 27 games.

That’s a balanced team.

The special teams over the last 27 games of 2024-25: 8.41 goals per 60 on the power play, good for No. 12 among NHL teams over the same period. The GA-60 on the penalty kill is 8.16 (No. 21).

That doesn’t represent balance overall, due to the special teams numbers.

Lines 

Another way to measure balanced rosters at five-on-five is checking in on each line to see if they are outscoring in the game situations. Using centres as proxy, here’s how the Oilers look over the entire season.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

There are some surprises here, especially McDavid solo at five-on-five. He’ll regress to his normal totals (over the last three seasons, including this one, the captain is at 54 percent goal share five-on-five when playing away from Draisaitl) but this is a shocking total in the short term. McDavid’s goal percentage at five-on-five in the last 27 games (15-15, 50 percent) is closer to his career norm.

Derek Ryan is 7-11 (39 percent) overall and 3-5 (38 percent) in his last 10 games. Noah Philp is playing for the Bakersfield Condors and we could see him slide in and replace Ryan (who might move to the wing) in the new year.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins started the season slowly and has struggled for much of the year. When he’s solo centre, the results have been dire (1-5 goals is an extreme outlier for the Nuge).

When he’s playing on the wing, RNH is at 17-13, 57 percent. We may be seeing his final games as a centre in the NHL.

There are some unbalanced lines at this time. Part of the problem could be injury. Zach Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson and Evander Kane have to be considered in evaluating the first 30 games in 2024-25.

Pairings

Darnell Nurse is healthy and playing some of the best hockey of his career. Meanwhile, the coaching staff has invented a strong platoon for the second pairing that gives the team a different look shift by shift.

Are the defensive pairings balanced and across the board successful?

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The defence shows the kind of balance Edmonton has been unable to manage in the past. The top two pairings (Mattias Ekholm with Evan Bouchard, followed by Nurse and whoever is beside him) are money this season, and the third pairing (Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson) is coming on after a slow start. That third tandem is 5-1 goals at five-on-five in the last nine games.

Edmonton’s defence has balance, albeit an unconventional balance. The second pairing trio of Nurse with Kulak or Troy Stecher is strong enough to outscore opponents in a significant way.

The Ekholm-Bouchard pairing is 8-6 goals five-on-five over the last nine games; the other pairings are 14-5 goals. That’s a balanced defence, Edmonton is having an impact against all levels of competition.

Goaltending

The improvement in net since the beginning of the season is reflected in Stuart Skinner’s month-by-month progress.

Another point worth making, although it impacts everyone on the ice, is the year-over-year improvement in SA-60 and HDSC against per 60.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Knoblauch and his coaching staff cut back on the shots against in 2023-24, and this year the high-danger chances are being suppressed. These indicators are positive but haven’t received much attention, partly due to the poor save percentage earlier this season.

Balance

In 2023-24, the Oilers had a balanced team during the regular season outside five-on-five save percentage and the penalty kill.

This season, special teams are outside the top 10 while the five-on-five performance in the last 27 games shines like a diamond.

The issues for general manager Stan Bowman include centre (McDavid will regress, Ryan may move to wing with Philp recalled), special teams (although they are improving) and possibly goaltending if the current recovery doesn’t have sustain.

Fans want an additional defenceman and they’ll likely get one. However, math tells us the defence is balanced now, despite the unusual deployment at the position.

How close to balance are these Oilers? Recall Philp, stay the course on special teams and find a way to run Jeff Skinner on a skill line plus power play.

Edmonton isn’t far away from balance. A smart trade deadline should get them there.

(Photo: Brad Rempel / Imagn Images)