NEW ORLEANS — What success looks like can be different for every NBA team, and the Pelicans are no different.
Based on their history, making it to the All-Star break with a 33-22 record suggests New Orleans is in the midst of one of its most successful seasons in franchise history. The organization has only managed to finish 10 games over .500 five times in 21 seasons.
However, that 33-22 record has the Pelicans as the No. 6 seed in a stacked Western Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of the No. 8 seed Sacramento Kings.
Even with all the positive steps they’ve taken to reach this point, there’s still a lot of work to be done over the final 27 regular-season games to determine how this year will be remembered.
With the talent on this roster, along with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram maintaining their relatively healthy seasons, this group has the potential to become one of the biggest wild cards in the Western Conference playoff field.
If things don’t go as well, the Pelicans could find themselves in the Play-In Tournament for the third straight season. Having a second consecutive season end with a loss in a do-or-die game would wipe away most of the good vibes surrounding this team in recent weeks.
Then, the tough questions will start coming.
So, we’ll start with this: How do the Pelicans make this a successful season? We’ll start with these five numbers that might help guide the way.
Six or better
Over the next two months, nothing will matter more to this team than locking down one of the top six seeds in the West and avoiding the Play-In Tournament.
While it might seem minimal in the grand scheme of things, taking that next step in their progression is a sign this team is headed in the right direction and that they aren’t remaining stagnant. Those few extra days of rest will also be a significant help heading into a potential playoff series against a top-3 seed.
After making the Play-In each of the last two seasons, New Orleans knows all about the glory of winning these single-elimination games and the agonizing finality that comes with a loss.
“It’s definitely one of our goals … to take another step. And that step for us is to not be in the Play-In,” Pelicans coach Willie Green said Wednesday. “We can control our own destiny by piling up as many wins as we can.”
Then there’s the Zion factor in all of this.
Considering he’s never played in the postseason, getting him the full experience of a playoff series will be crucial for his development. It would also put him under pressure if he had to lead his team through a single-elimination game against the likes of LeBron James, Luka Dončić or Kevin Durant.
If this team continues on its current trajectory and finishes around 49 wins, that would be a massive victory for those who were skeptical a Williamson/Ingram combination would ever work. But how would the franchise view this season if it ended with them winning all those games and failing to make it out of the Play-In again?
With the roster-building questions they’re facing, would another failure force the Pelicans front office to shake up and break up this current core?
The best way to avoid those questions is to stay above the Play-In line.
Shooting 32.3 percent
That’s the number Trey Murphy has been shooting from 3-point distance since January.
After the jump he made as a scorer in his second season, Murphy has struggled with inconsistency in Year 3 and the confidence in his jumper has cratered. He’s gone from making 40.6 percent of his 3s last season to 36.1 percent this season.
Murphy is such a good shooter that defenses will have no choice but to respect him when he’s spacing the floor, even if he is having a down year. His presence will continue to be essential for this team as they look for ways to give their top players the space they need to operate.
But this team needs more from Murphy than floor spacing. They need him to put the ball in the basket.
When he’s making shots, it brings an entirely different dynamic to the offense.
He punishes teams that try to help off of him from the weak side. He swings the momentum with buckets in transition. He attacks the offensive glass. He’s a weapon in screening actions with Williamson.
His size, shot-making and defensive versatility add to what the Pels view as their core identity heading into the playoffs.
When he can play big minutes and close games, it makes life so much easier for Williamson and Ingram. If they can’t trust him in those crucial moments, the other options on the bench come with flaws. Teams will try to target Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins on the defensive end. They’ll dare Naji Marshall and Herb Jones to make outside jumpers.
When the game slows down against good teams, New Orleans will likely have to find ways to work around those players. Murphy is one of the few role players on this team who adds new wrinkles to this offense when he’s rolling. But none of it matters if he’s not making shots.
Assists: 5.6
Over his last 11 games, Williamson is averaging 5.6 assists per game. Green has emphasized using him as the primary ball handler more often in half-court actions, and it’s led to him playing some of the best basketball of his career.
While Williamson has shown he can make the right reads when double-teams come his way, the number of assists he racks up isn’t the most important thing for him. It’s about the Pelicans getting better at focusing their offense around giving him the ball in space and forcing defenses to react.
“You’re putting the ball in his hands and you’re simplifying everything and allowing him to make decisions,” Green said of his ‘Point Zion’ offense. “You’ve got to make some tough decisions defensively. If you don’t help off those guys, he’s going to the basket and he’s scoring. If you help off those guys, they’re knocking down open shots.”
The offense was always heading in this direction, but it took time for Williamson to get himself right mentally and physically to carry that type of responsibility for long stretches. But since the start of the new year, Zion has been moving around better than he has at any point during his pro career.
He’s flying up the court in transition. He’s finishing plays above the rim. He’s even showing flashes on the defensive end and making some highlight plays.
While Ingram has shown he can carry the offense and put up huge numbers in a playoff environment, the path to this team raising its ceiling starts with Williamson taking his game to another level and dominating with the ball.
As of late, he’s found comfort in attacking certain areas of the court and making reads to determine when and where defenses will send help to slow him down. As he’s creeping closer to peak physical condition, he’s starting to make it look easy how he scores when the game slows down.
Every good team needs one or two set plays they can go to when the game grinds to a halt. A few weeks ago, the Pelicans probably didn’t feel great about any of their options when the game called for them to slow down and execute. But with Willuanson improving the way he has and Ingram becoming a much more reliable hub of the offense in clutch situations, this team may end up looking more postseason-ready than some expect.
Negative-25
Since the start of January, Williamson, Ingram and Larry Nance Jr. have played 89 minutes together and they’ve been outscored by 25 points during their time on the court. That’s not great.
In big moments, Green has shown that the frontcourt lineup he trusts the most will be Nance at center next to Williamson and Ingram. Nance brings defensive versatility and overall IQ that are crucial when trying to cover up some of the flaws of the team’s two leading scorers.
There have been plenty of complaints this season about the starting lineup and how the numbers have shown it hasn’t worked. Nance replacing Jonas Valančiūnas at center is a common solution as a way to open up the floor for Williamson and Ingram.
Unfortunately for those three, the offense has been awful when they’ve shared the court this season. To be fair, 89 minutes is a tiny sample size and things can change quickly for this trio with a couple of nice outings after the All-Star break.
However, the Pelicans don’t have any hope of making noise in the postseason if this frontcourt trio can’t figure it out.
Valančiūnas is too limited defensively to leave him on an island for long stretches against some of the top offenses in the league. Green has experimented with Williamson-at-the-5 lineups, but the lack of rebounding and interior defense has proven to be too much to overcome. Certain matchups will give Green opportunities to try Jones at center, but that’s not a sustainable option.
Nance, Williamson and Ingram are three players who should mesh together well. Nance’s 3-point shooting has ticked up, and Ingram has gotten more comfortable finding opportunities to be aggressive rather than standing around and watching Williamson when he has the ball.
This trio has to be better, though. More often than not, they’ll be on the court together during the biggest moments the Pelicans face in the coming months.
If Nance isn’t the answer, there are few viable options on the rest of the roster.
Points: 19.0
Coming into this year, CJ McCollum had a streak of 10 straight seasons averaging 20-plus points per game. That’s impressive for a guy who’s never made the All-Star team. This year, McCollum is averaging 19.0 points per game, yet this could go down as one of the best seasons of his career.
He’s shooting 42.1 percent from distance while attempting eight 3-pointers per game. He’s averaging a career-high in steals (1.1) and blocks (0.8) while dropping his turnovers per game down to 1.6.
McCollum has traded in some of his high-volume scoring for efficiency and added grit on the defensive end. His willingness to sacrifice and focus on winning has been a game-changer for this team. They wouldn’t be where they are now without his leadership.
However, it’ll be key for McCollum to maintain focus and not rely on his offense as his sole means to change games. The same is true for Ingram as well.
As these games get tight, it will only be natural for those two to rely on their offense to make their respective impacts felt. But for this particular team, it might be more helpful for them to keep the ball moving, knock down open shots and pour more energy into defense.
The Pels’ Big 3 has done a decent job of sacrificing their numbers to make things work between them. They’ll have to maintain that team-first mindset as the pressure attached to these games continues to increase.
(Top photo of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram: Stephen Lew/USA Today)
