Eddie Howe was uncharacteristically furious. On September 21, the time had come for a head coach who rarely admonishes to remind his Newcastle United players of the “fundamentals”.
The 3-1 defeat at Craven Cottage had illustrated what happens when his Newcastle side do not show necessary application.
Howe told his players that, while poor technical performances could be accepted from time to time, falling to carry out the basics — closing down, tracking and putting in maximum effort — was inexcusable.
He had seen it too often on the road last season and would not allow it to persist.
Since that west London nadir, Newcastle’s improvement away has been dramatic, and it is the primary reason they are in a position to get back into the Champions League next season.
The stats that reveal the turnaround
Having won half of their 16 top-flight away matches this season, Newcastle are on course to record their highest-ever Premier League win ratio on the road.
Their previous highest was in 2001-02 (47.4 per cent) under Sir Bobby Robson, when Newcastle won nine away matches en route to the Champions League. Under Kevin Keegan in 1993-94, they also claimed nine away victories, but that was during a 42-match campaign (42.9 per cent win ratio).
With trips to Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal to come, Newcastle need one more victory to equal their club record for Premier League away wins in a single season, and two to set a new high mark.
Notwithstanding the odd aberration — such as their woeful defensive display during the 4-2 defeat at Brentford in December, or their meek surrenders at Manchester City (4-0) and Liverpool (2-0) in February — Newcastle have proven themselves to be an entirely different proposition on their travels to the soft, flaky outfit who so often wilted away last season.
Across 2023-24, Newcastle lost 57.9 per cent of their top-flight away fixtures (11) and won only 31.6 per cent (six). Even if one of those was the historic 8-0 triumph at Sheffield United, Newcastle only won successive away games once all season.
Howe’s league away record at Newcastle
| Stats | 2024-25 | 2023-24 | 2022-23 | 2021-22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Played |
16 |
19 |
19 |
13 |
|
Won |
8 |
6 |
8 |
5 |
|
Drawn |
3 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
|
Lost |
5 |
11 |
3 |
7 |
|
Points |
27 |
20 |
32 |
16 |
|
Win % away |
50.0% |
31.6% |
42.1% |
38.5% |
|
Loss % away |
31.3% |
57.9% |
15.8% |
53.8% |
|
% points away |
45.8% |
33.3% |
45.1% |
36.3% |
|
% points home |
54.2% |
66.7% |
54.9% |
63.7% |
|
Points differential, home to away |
+0.31 |
+1.06 |
+0.37 |
+0.77 |
In that season, had the league table been calculated by away results alone, Newcastle would have finished 11th, rather than seventh, below West Ham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.
Newcastle boasted the fourth-best home record last season, with 12 victories, but relying on their Tyneside ‘fortress’ to deliver two-thirds of their points tally proved insufficient for a top-six finish. Their home-versus-away points differential was, at +1.06 — an average of 2.11 points per game at St James’ and 1.05 on their travels — which was the largest in the Premier League by a distance.
“You don’t want to become home-dominant,” Howe told The Athletic earlier this month, before his absence due to pneumonia. “You don’t want to be able to just perform in front of the Newcastle supporters.”
During the off-season, rectifying Newcastle’s away record was close to the top of Howe’s priority list.
Although most teams collect a greater ratio of points at home, the points differential had been far healthier in 2022-23 (+0.37), when Newcastle won eight and lost only three away matches, which proved critical in earning a fourth-placed finish. Newcastle were higher in the Premier League’s away-only table (third) than they were in the home-only table (fifth).
Even across the 13 away games Howe oversaw while battling relegation in 2021-22, Newcastle’s points differential (+0.77) was higher than in 2023-24.
This season, their points differential ahead of the Villa match (+0.31; an average of 2.0 per game at home and 1.69 away) and the percentage of points picked up on the road (45.8 per cent) represent new highs under Howe.
Once again, Newcastle find themselves higher in the away-only table (third) than the home-only table (fourth). But while their home form has been almost identical to the past three seasons, the uptick in their away form has been game-changing.
Newcastle won 2-0 at Old Trafford in December (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
How have Newcastle improved so dramatically?
Last summer, coaching staff identified about half a dozen issues that needed addressing in away matches.
One of those was rediscovering the psychological adjustment overseen in 2022-23, when Newcastle approached every match, regardless of venue, with the same conviction.
“You’ve got to use that positive feeling and do it in every environment,” Howe said. “How we’ve tried to do it is be consistent — we don’t change the way we play, whether we’re home or away. We always tactically tweak things, depending on who we’re playing, but there’s not a mindset shift when we’re away. I don’t believe in that.”
The reshaping of mentality this season has been particularly important. Newcastle won at Old Trafford for only the second time in the league since 1972, went to Tottenham Hotspur and claimed victory, and triumphed at the Emirates in the Carabao Cup — all within eight days.
While they succumbed at Anfield and the Etihad, as usual, Newcastle also won at Wembley for the first time since 1955 to lift the Carabao Cup, the ultimate confirmation of their amended outlook.
Stylistically, there has not been a significant change in how Newcastle play on the road. Possession (50.8 per cent in 2023-24 and 51.3 per cent in 2024-25), pass volume (476.6 per 90 to 470.3) and shot volume (11.6 to 12.0) statistics are similar between the seasons.
A big difference, however, is how often and effectively they are hitting teams on the break. As the chart below shows, only Liverpool are generating more opportunities from fast breaks this season.
Newcastle’s expected goals (xG) — which measures the likelihood of a shot being scored — from fast breaks is three times what it was last season. That is partly down to the increased volume of shots from fast-break situations, which have increased from 0.4 per 90 in 2023-24 to 1.1 this season.
Harvey Barnes’ goal at the City Ground in November is a prime example, with the winger winning possession deep inside his own half.
After neat interplay, Sandro Tonali and Barnes lead the counter.
Having carried possession, Tonali has Isak to his right and Barnes to his left. He passes to the latter, who advances and scores.
“We have a good counter-attacking team and naturally sometimes when you’re away, you’ll end up counter-attacking a bit more,” Howe said. “We’ve got good pace. We’re a threat in those moments.”
Five of Newcastle’s away victories have come with the lesser share of possession. They have failed to win any of the three matches in which they have had the highest share of possession: draws at Everton and Bournemouth, plus the Fulham defeat.
A consistency of selection has undoubtedly helped, too.
Newcastle had a settled back four throughout much of 2022-23. Across 2023-24, only two sides used more players than Newcastle (32). In 2024-25, only one team has fielded fewer than Newcastle (24).
The lack of European football has, in hindsight, proven a positive in this regard, as Newcastle’s squad has not been stretched in the same way it was when they were in the Champions League.
James Bunce’s arrival as performance director last summer has also aided this, with his input leading to an improvement in player availability and ensuring Newcastle have been able to sustain their intensity on the road more often.
Fewer midweek fixtures have also given Howe and assistant head coach Jason Tindall, who oversees the defensive work, additional training sessions. They are renowned for the improvements they can extract through coaching, as evidenced post-Fulham, and that has benefited Newcastle this season, though a solution must be found for 2025-26 when there will be European fixtures.
Defensively, the progress is obvious. Newcastle are scoring fewer goals per 90 away (1.6, down from 1.9), but are conceding significantly fewer (1.3, down from 2.1). Across 2023-24, Newcastle kept only two clean sheets on the road. This season, there have already been five.
Howe has tinkered with the approach. Newcastle are making fewer defensive recoveries in the final third away from home (3.4 per 90, down from 4.4), which suggests they are sitting a little deeper and looking to counter.
Howe steered Newcastle to a 1-0 win at West Ham in March (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
This has allowed Newcastle to protect leads — they have only dropped two points from winning positions away, down from four last season — and the blueprint has also allowed them to fight back more often. Across 2023-24, Newcastle only picked up a solitary point from a losing position on the road; this season, they have claimed a league-high 13.
“Your away form is always based on character, on resilience, on your ability to defend first,” Howe said. “If you have a solid foundation, you’ve got a chance of winning games. So I’d probably put (the improvement) down to that as the first port of call. I’ve been pleased to see us become a bit harder to score against, and still that’s an area we need to focus on.”
Another factor which is impossible to quantify is confidence. Newcastle have built up positive momentum, winning 19 of their 24 matches in all competitions since December 14, the most by a Premier League side.
“We’ve just found great rhythm and balance amongst the squad, and we’re going into every game confident,” said winger Jacob Murphy. “We go into every game believing we can win. We know that if we show up, we’ve got more than half a chance. When you’ve got the trophy in tow, obviously that helps even more.”
If Newcastle triumph at Villa Park, it will be their away form that made the Champions League a possibility.
(Top photo: Newcastle beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 at the City Ground in November; by Alex Livesey via Getty Images)