A month remains in the NFL season, but about one quarter of the league already has their eyes set on 2025. Seven teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs, and eight currently sit at three wins or lower. For those teams, the next four weeks are about building for the future as teams vie for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
With the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win over the Tennessee Titans, they have all but exited the race for the first overall draft pick. Now sitting at 3-10 after the win, Jacksonville’s odds fell from 14 percent on Dec. 6 to 2 percent after Sunday’s game.
The win now makes this a two-team race between the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. Our models have the No. 1 pick going to these two teams in a combined 74 percent of outcomes. No other team has higher than 10 percent odds to secure the first draft pick. The race is tight behind the Giants and Raiders, though. Six teams (Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville, New York Jets, Tennessee, New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers) all sit at a 3-10 record with four games left to play.
New York Giants (2-11)
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A late-game Giants surge put New York in a position to tie the game on a 35-yard field goal with 11 seconds on the clock, potentially jeopardizing their spot at the top of the draft board with an overtime win. Instead, the New Orleans Saints blocked Graham Gano’s kick and actually pushed the Giants into the driver’s seat for the top overall pick.
The full week of preparation wasn’t enough to make Drew Lock (21-for-49, 227 yards, 1 INT) look like a winning quarterback, despite the Giants’ defense holding an opponent to under 300 total yards for just the third time this season. New York now faces four teams still in the playoff conversation, the sixth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league.
Remaining schedule: Baltimore Ravens, at Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
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Despite losing their ninth straight game of the season, the Raiders lost ground in the No. 1 overall pick race because of strength of schedule. While the Giants have the sixth-highest strength of schedule, Las Vegas’ remaining schedule ranks 26th in the league over the last four weeks.
That may get balanced out by news from Sunday’s game though as Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell was carted off the field with a knee injury late in the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If O’Connell misses a significant amount of time, it would leave the Raiders with third-string quarterback Desmond Ridder for the remainder of the season.
Remaining schedule: Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, at New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers
New England Patriots (3-10)
The Patriots were on a bye this week, and the one-game deficit in the race for the No. 1 overall pick means they will need help from the rest of the league if they hope to improve their draft stock. Assuming the Raiders and Giants both pick up wins to make this a race, New England has the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league to keep them grounded.
Remaining schedule: at Arizona Cardinals, at Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills
New York Jets (3-10)
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The Jets’ overtime loss to the Miami Dolphins kept them in this race, but all signs point to them picking up at least one more win over the next month. The Jets posted a season-high 402 offensive yards in the win, while Aaron Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game since December 2021.
That offensive surge comes as the Jets lose their third straight game by six points or fewer despite missing key pieces on both sides of the ball. The Jets are playing adequately, and the team’s remaining schedule leaves the door open for a potential win.
Remaining schedule: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, at Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers (3-10)
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In terms of tank jobs, the Carolina Panthers are running as good of an operation as one can. The Panthers have now lost one-score games to both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in two of their last three games, a balancing act that shows competence while keeping draft stock high.
The Panthers are also the only 3-10 team not eliminated from playoff contention, making them probably one of the only teams in recent memory to simultaneously compete for a first-overall pick and a division title at the same time. Their last four games can push the Panthers in either direction over the next month.
Remaining schedule: Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns (3-10)
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Two things can be true at the same time: the Cleveland Browns are playing better under Jameis Winston, and the Cleveland Browns are going to remain in the running for the top overall pick the rest of this season.
The Browns have the fourth-hardest strength of schedule remaining, playing all four games against teams still vying for a playoff berth. Playing Winston at quarterback gives this team the highs necessary to win games and the lows needed to keep Cleveland with a longshot chance at the top overall pick.
Remaining schedule: Kansas City Chiefs, at Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens
Required reading
(Photo: Kathryn Riley / Getty Images)
