It came as some surprise when Ivan Toney was left out of the Brentford squad for their Premier League season opener against Crystal Palace on Sunday afternoon.
The forward has less than 12 months left on his contract and Saudi Pro League side Al Ahli are interested in signing him. Nothing has been agreed, but after months of speculation about his future, it looks like Toney’s time in west London is coming to a bittersweet end.
The Athletic explains the situation…
Was Toney originally expected to play?
On Friday afternoon, when Brentford head coach Thomas Frank spoke to the media, he said their 28-year-old England striker had trained with a “smile on his face, (a) good attitude” and that he would be available to face Palace on Sunday.
When the line-ups were released 75 minutes before kick-off, though, he was mysteriously absent.
Toney has been one of Brentford’s best players since he joined them, as a Championship side, from Peterborough United of League One (the third tier of English football) in summer 2020 for £5million, and he was their vice-captain last season. The Athletic soon reported that Jeddah-based Al Ahli held an interest in him, but that nothing had been agreed between the two clubs.
There has been speculation around Toney’s future before, and he was the subject of a lot of attention between November 2022 and May 2023 when England’s Football Association was investigating his alleged gambling activity.
Frank has always played him when available and praised his ability to “block out” potential distractions.
This time, however, feels different.
What have Brentford and Frank said?
“A lot of things are going on with Ivan — there is some transfer interest,” Frank told Sky Sports, which broadcast the Palace game in the UK, before kick-off. “Because of that, he is not in the squad. Ivan is a top player — we all know that. He has been a fantastic player for us for four years, but we showed last year we could cope without him.”
Frank and senior figures at the club decided on Thursday that Toney would not play in the west London club’s 2024-25 season opener. After Brentford beat Palace, 2-1, Frank said the player “was on board” with leaving him out of the matchday squad and that it had not been a difficult conversation.
“He has been one of our best players — if not our best player — over a long spell,” Frank said. “All the top players in the Premier League, one day they will leave the club and someone else needs to step up and do well.”
Brentford head coach Thomas Frank (Eddie Keogh/Getty Images)
Does Toney actually want to play in Saudi Arabia?
Earlier this year, Toney made it clear in multiple interviews that he wanted to play “for a top club, fighting for titles”.
In the 2022-23 season, he scored 20 goals in 33 top-flight appearances — only Erling Haaland (36) and Harry Kane (30) had better records. He would have been primed for a move last summer, but the eight-month ban he received from the FA for breaching betting rules complicated things.
He struggled for form when he returned in January this year, but did enough to be included in Gareth Southgate’s squad for this summer’s European Championship. Toney helped England pull off a dramatic comeback victory in their round of 16 tie against Slovakia, then scored a penalty as they won their quarter-final in a shootout with Switzerland.
Toney’s match-winning quality is clear to see, but there are younger centre-forward options than him in the market — which might be why it has taken so long for interest to materialise.
Due to Toney’s wage demands and the fee required, there are only a handful of clubs who can both afford him and match his ambition. Arsenal were interested, but Kai Havertz’s form up front in the second half of last season made their need for a new striker less pressing.
Brentford have spent over £100million ($129m) in the transfer market since they were promoted from the Championship three years ago and the only significant sale they have made since then is David Raya’s £27m move to Arsenal, an initial loan made permanent this summer. The club’s senior figures are reluctant to allow Toney to leave next summer as a free agent when his contract expires which, with the lack of interest from elsewhere, has allowed Al Ahli to take pole position. Frank said “a deal is not close but we hope it will be”.
Al Ahli, who have been Saudi Arabian champions three times and finished third last season with a squad including former Liverpool striker Roberto Firmino and ex-Manchester City winger Riyad Mahrez, may not have the same reputation and allure as the Premier League’s biggest sides, but such lucrative opportunities are understandably tempting for a player like Toney, who spent so much of his career further down the football pyramid, especially when Brentford seemingly have few other offers on the table.
Should Toney end up staying until next summer and the end of his contract, by which time he’ll be 29, he would likely have a much wider selection of clubs to pick from as there would be no transfer fee involved.
How much would Brentford miss him?
Toney missed the first 20 games of Brentford’s 2023-24 season as he completed his suspension. They found a way to cope in his absence, with Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa sharing a lot of the goalscoring burden.
Brentford have been preparing to lose Toney for a long time, and in February announced the club-record signing of Igor Thiago from Club Bruges in Belgium for this summer in a deal worth up to €36.5million (£31m/$40m). He scored twice in a pre-season friendly against AFC Wimbledon but injured his knee and has been ruled out for months following surgery.
With Thiago and Toney both unavailable, Wissa started through the middle against Palace with Mbeumo and Kevin Schade on the wings in a 4-3-3 system. Wissa likes to drop deep to receive on the half turn, which meant there were occasions on Sunday when Schade came in off the left to try to hold the ball up in central areas like Toney does. That is not the Germany international’s strong suit, however, and on a couple of occasions he failed to control passes properly and Palace turned it over.
Playing Schade up front with Wissa and Mbeumo offers Frank a lot more flexibility, though. The trio can interchange positions and cause opponents nightmares with their speed — all three of Palace’s centre-backs picked up bookings for bringing one of them down.
In the end, Mbeumo and Wissa stepped up again and scored the goals to give Brentford the three points. In the final 20 minutes, Keane Lewis-Potter and new signing Fabio Carvalho came off the bench. Frank will miss Toney if he goes, but he has more than enough firepower to cope.
Wissa has been linked with a move to fellow Premier League side Wolverhampton Wanderers. When The Athletic asked Frank if Toney leaving meant Wissa would stay, he answered, “If it was up to me, yes.”
Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo both scored for Brentford on Sunday (Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)
Do any other clubs still have an interest?
The Athletic reported last month that Manchester United had discussed a move for Toney internally. Arsenal, as previously mentioned, were admirers in the past, and Chelsea have looked at him too.
What would it mean for his England chances?
Jordan Henderson was named in Southgate’s England squad last September after he moved from Liverpool to Saudi side Al Ettifaq. Henderson was a far more established member of the squad though compared to Toney, who has only made one start and five substitute appearances for his country.
England Under-21s manager Lee Carsley is taking interim charge of the senior side for their Nations League fixtures against the Republic of Ireland and Finland next month, with Southgate having stepped down following the Euro 2024 loss to Spain after almost eight years in the job.
It feels like a risky move from Toney to move to a league where there are such big question marks over the quality and level of competition at a time when there is uncertainty over who will manage England for the longer term.
(Top photo: Adam Davy/Getty Images)
