Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season is highlighted by the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a game that Taylor Swift may or may not be attending. We will have to wait and see. Even if she doesn’t, the game is must see television as the Chiefs try to keep their record unscathed while the Bills try to claw back in the race for the top seed in the AFC. It’s also a battle between the two best quarterbacks in the NFL and that alone will have me glued to the screen.
Elsewhere in the league, though, we have some pretty big games. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles square off in a key NFC East divisional matchup and the Cincinnati Bengals try to keep their playoff hopes alive and not have back-to-back losses to the Harbaugh brothers. The three games mentioned above are huge for this season and luckily for me, my NFL projection model sees value on two of them.
Last week’s record: 2-1, -0.10 units
Season record: 24-22-2, +0.90 units, +1.8% ROI
I have three plays to kick off the week, but also three teasers because there are some great — and I mean great — options this week. As always shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
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Best bets for NFL Week 11
Cleveland Browns +1 (-110) at New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr played pretty well against the Atlanta Falcons last week, but the Falcons are one of the league’s worst teams at generating pressure. And if you give Derek Carr time to throw, he will make you pay. Luckily for the Browns this week, their defensive line, led by Myles Garrett, should be able to speed up Carr’s internal clock and make him uncomfortable. My model currently makes the Browns the slightest of favorites this week so I’ll grab them getting a point here.
- Worst price to bet: Browns +1 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-110) at Buffalo Bills
A few weeks ago against San Francisco, I mentioned that any time the Chiefs are an underdog with Patrick Mahomes under center that’s an auto bet and I’m sticking to that philosophy. For some actual analysis, the Bills have looked much better on offense since acquiring Amari Cooper, but I think we are starting to overvalue them a bit. They’re also facing one of the league’s best defenses so I feel pretty good that Josh Allen and company will have their hands full. And again, Patrick Mahomes is an underdog.
- Worst price to bet: Chiefs +2 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers under 47 (-110)
I’m mostly fine with this price even if Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown Jr. are able to suit up so no need to wait for an injury report. Justin Herbert has been playing his best ball of the season in the last few weeks, but the Chargers have still only gone over 40 points in a game one time this season and it was last week against the Titans. Yes, the Bengals offense is awesome and their defense is every bit of not awesome, but I think the Chargers try to slow this game down and make the Bengals drive the length of the field.
- Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-115)
Teasers
Season record: 1-2-1, -1.40 units
Overall record: 9-7-1, +0.40 units, +2.0%
Dolphins -1.5/Chiefs +8.5 (-120)
Dolphins -1.5/Texans -1.5 (-120)
Chiefs +8.5/Texans -1.5 (-120)
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
