Best bets from my NFL Projection Model took a hiatus last week but returns for Week 17 of the regular season after a sweep of the board in Week 15. We are on a nice little hot streak as the regular season winds down, going 6-1-1 over the last two weeks of picks. Of course, that comes after a 2-10-1 streak the three weeks prior. That’s the swings of sports betting, folks. The process stays the same but the results can be all over the place over a small sample.
Week 15 record: 3-0, +3.00 units
Season record: 32-33-4, -3.25 units, -4.4% ROI
Only two bets to kick off the week. Josh Allen’s and Jalen Hurts’ uncertainty takes away two games I might be interested in, so we will have to wait and see there. It’s the end of the year, so things get a little hairy with who I’m willing to get involved with, so I’m not upset playing things conservatively. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
Best bets for NFL Week 17
Arizona Cardinals +7 (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
Yes, I know that the Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs, and I know that the Rams can lock up the NFC West with a win, but this is a crazy price for these two teams. The only reason I think this number is at a touchdown and extra point is because of the market believing that Arizona won’t be motivated to play. I would have to adjust my number significantly to get even close to this price which I’m not going to do as I believe the motivation angle is a bit overblown here.
- Worst price to bet: Cardinals +7 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders under 47.5 (-110)
Michael Penix Jr. won in his debut last week and looked pretty good doing so, but I’m not going to overreact to a performance against the current version of the Giants. I’m not super high on the Commanders defense, but I do think they’ll give Penix a much harder time down to down in his first road start. I lean towards Washington in this game but don’t love the price, and I have a much bigger edge on the total given my model’s expectation that the Falcons’ offense underperforms.
- Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-110)
(Photo of Michael Penix Jr.: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
