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Notre Dame and Penn State playing in a college football game with national title implications? What decade is it? Neither classic power won a game in the four-team era of the College Football Playoff, but both have taken nicely to the 12-team version.
The Fighting Irish opened as favorites against the Nittany Lions for the semifinal set to take place in the Orange Bowl.
How to watch Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Both programs entered this season with a stigma of not winning big games in recent years. Penn State never even made the four-team Playoff, while Notre Dame did twice, but lost those two games by a combined 44 points. While Penn State still may have something to prove after facing SMU and Boise State, which are far from the elite in the sport, in the first two rounds of the Playoff, Notre Dame’s win against Georgia was a heck of a statement.
Notre Dame’s defense has dominated in its playoff wins against Indiana and the Bulldogs. IU scored three points until a pair of garbage-time touchdowns in the final two minutes. Georgia matched its season-low with 10 points. The Irish have the second-best scoring defense in the country (13.6 points per game, only behind Ohio State). Penn State also has a top-10 scoring defense, which is why the point total for the semifinal is listed in the 40s on BetMGM.
Notre Dame-Penn State total at @BetMGM
50.5: Open
48.5: 10 minutes ago
46.5: Now 📉
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 3, 2025
The Irish have covered in 10 straight games, a far cry from the 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois in the second week of the season.
While Notre Dame’s win against Georgia was the first win in a big bowl game in more than 30 years, Penn State is still searching for that level of win under James Franklin. The Nittany Lions had the so-called easy path to the semifinals and took advantage with a dominant win against SMU and a comfortable win against Boise State.
These teams aren’t very different. Both have dominant defenses with nasty pass rushes and strong run games. The passing attacks leave more to be desired. This game could end up being the old-school affair the jerseys represent.
It’s been 17 seasons since these teams met. Penn State won 31-10 in 2007. The all-time series is tied 9-9-1. Notre Dame and Penn State met every November from 1981-1992 with Joe Paterno and Lou Holtz going at it with typically strong teams. Penn State won eight of those 12 meetings.
Penn State has two extra days of rest after the Nittany Lions played in the one quarterfinal on New Year’s Eve and the Sugar Bowl was postponed for nearly 20 hours to Jan. 2.
Pick: Notre Dame -1.5
Notre Dame’s offense, particularly its lack of a passing game, isn’t giving me a lot of confidence, but I’d feel foolish picking Penn State to win a big game and the Nittany Looks end up performing like they have in every other big game for the last several years. It’s not a big enough spread to give me much pause. Plus, favorites are 8-0 in the CFP so far.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
|
-1.5 |
-125 |
||
|
46.5 |
+105 |
More CFP coverage
Notre Dame advances in Playoff with win over Georgia in delayed Sugar Bowl
Ohio State showed in Rose Bowl it’s best team in country — and only gaining steam
Boise State wasn’t exposed in Fiesta Bowl loss, but College Football Playoff seeding was
An Ohio State vs. Penn State finale? Big Ten powers proving that identity still matters
(Photo of Junior Tuihalamaka: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
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