This week brings up the midway point of the 2024-25 Premier League season. It’s already been a memorable campaign, with Liverpool clear at the top, the two Manchester clubs in turmoil and the increasingly-familiar sight of the three promoted teams in the bottom three.
But what have been the tactical and numerical trends that have captured our experts’ attention, and how do they see the second half of the campaign playing out?
Ahmed Walid, Thom Harris and Anantaajith Raghuraman discuss their key takeaways.
Which team’s tactics have most interested you this season?
Ahmed Walid: It’s always difficult to take over once a successful manager departs but I have been very impressed with Liverpool under Arne Slot. The team’s pressing and general out-of-possession approach had some teething issues earlier in the season, but their performance without the ball against Aston Villa, Manchester City and Tottenham showed that it’s returned to an elite level.
Liverpool still retain their attacking edge on transitions, but it’s in possession where things get interesting. Slot has shifted Liverpool to a more controlled approach with slight tweaks to how the team attacks.
Trent Alexander-Arnold hasn’t been moving into midfield as much as he did last season, Alexis Mac Allister has been dropping to support Ryan Gravenberch progress the ball up the pitch, and in certain games the centre-forward’s role is to operate in the half-space. In addition, Mohamed Salah has been used as a direct outlet when Liverpool are being pressed up the pitch. The Egyptian has received 37 per cent of Liverpool goalkeepers’ completed long passes in the Premier League this season, a stark increase compared to the previous six campaigns.
That’s without mentioning Slot’s half-time tactical tweaks which have helped Liverpool in multiple games this season, notably the 2-0 victory against Real Madrid in the Champions League.
Anantaajith Raghuraman: Brentford seem to evolve every season under Thomas Frank, and their use of kick offs to score early goals in back-to-back games against Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United was inspired.
Football is increasingly moving towards winning by controlling possession, but Brentford’s approach showed the importance of territorial dominance even if it means ceding possession early and embracing the chaos.
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The other aspect of their setup that has been interesting is the ability to alter their game plan according to the teams they have faced. Ivan Toney’s exit and Igor Thiago’s injury in pre-season allowed Frank to innovate with a fluid frontline. Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbuemo, Kevin Schade and Mikkel Damsgaard have interchanged positions, both on team sheets and in-game, keeping opponents guessing, and has brought the best out of all four players.
Brentford have become experts at scoring early in Premier League games (Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images)
Thom Harris: There are some likeable teams punching above their weight in the top half of the Premier League table but Marco Silva deserves particular credit for how he’s overseen continual improvement at Fulham. Despite losing Aleksandar Mitrovic and Joao Palhinha, the club have emerged with multiple high-quality options in each position, with all but two of the players involved in their memorable 2-1 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Boxing Day having been signed under the Portuguese’s watch.
There are plenty of different profiles throughout a carefully-built squad that allow Silva to adapt his approach to the opposition. He switched to a back five to mirror Chelsea’s attacking shape on Boxing Day, and is able to rely on combative midfielders Sasa Lukic and Sander Berge for defensive grit, while the signing of Emile Smith Rowe has helped to evolve their combination play down the left-hand side.
Rotating with Alex Iwobi and Reiss Nelson, working to open up space for the overlapping for Antonee Robinson, there is creativity, pace and unpredictability down that flank to keep the opposition guessing. The minutes are shared nicely between the No 9s, too, each averaging a goal every other game this season. It looks like a happy squad, brought together by an astute coach.
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Which team have you been most disappointed by?
Walid: Clearly Manchester City have missed Rodri, and other injuries have affected them. But considering the quality of the players and the fact their manager is Pep Guardiola, the team’s performance without the ball has taken a nosedive. It’s not only the intensity of the pressing, but there is constant confusion between the players in terms of who has to jump to press, allowing the opponent to easily play through them, as was the case in the 2-1 defeat against Villa.
The counter-pressing levels have dropped as well. Rodri’s absence is a factor, but City’s vulnerability when they lose the ball is that of a team fighting relegation. Usually, Guardiola finds a solution but it’s becoming a bit late now as other teams around them rack up points. Even qualifying for next season’s Champions League is starting to look like a stretch.
Rodri’s injury against Arsenal: Significant but not the only reason City are struggling (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
Raghuraman: I expected Crystal Palace to build on their exploits between February and May under Oliver Glasner last season and — until recently — they have fallen well short of those expectations. A rather unsuccessful summer window that saw them lose Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen and fail to add wing-backs better suited to Glasner’s system are key contributors, but there is more to it.
In 13 games under Glasner at the end of last season, Palace averaged 6.2 possessions won in the attacking third per match, only behind Manchester City (9.1) and Arsenal (7.2). That figure has plummeted to 3.8 in 18 games this season (11th best).
In attack, they are still averaging 3.8 open-play shots on target per game, but the quality of opportunities and finishing have suffered, with their conversion rate declining from 17 per cent to seven per cent. But Palace’s recent league form (one loss in their last seven) and their defensive record (26 goals conceded, eighth best in the division) are reasons for optimism.
Harris: West Ham haven’t kicked on as I’d hoped after what looked like an exciting summer window. They are just too porous defensively — only the three promoted sides have conceded more expected goals (xG) this season — and they feel a little less potent going forward with Julen Lopetegui’s more measured possession approach.
There is quality simmering in this squad, and a run of four games unbeaten has shown that they have the firepower to challenge for the top half, but there’s another level to hit.
West Ham have shown flashes so far this season but is there more to come? (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
Which player have you most enjoyed watching?
Walid: Ryan Gravenberch’s adaptation to the No 6 role at Liverpool has been hugely impressive. The Netherlands midfielder has been one of the best players in the Premier League this season in that role. Away from his top-class performances in and out of possession, Gravenberch’s trademark move of opening up his body and receiving on the turn to dribble past the opponent has been beautiful to watch.
Ryan Gravenberch has been a revelation as Liverpool’s No 6 (Jan Kruger/Getty Images)
Raghuraman: Amid the chaos at Tottenham, Dejan Kulusevski has been a source of calm and reasonable consistency. He is a joy to watch in full flow, relying on clever feints, close control and off-the-ball movement to outwork defences. Spurs’ struggles on the left wing due to injuries and Son Heung-min’s form have meant they have relied more on Kulusevski to create and he has done so admirably from midfield and out wide.
His 39 chances created is bettered only by Cole Palmer (48) and Bukayo Saka (41), while only Mohamed Salah (62) and Alex Iwobi (50) have completed more successful passes into the penalty box than Kulusevski’s 49.
Harris: There are few players as thrilling to watch as Alexander Isak at his peak and, after a slow start to the season, he has seven goals and two assists in his last five Premier League games.
Combining his dribbling ability with a tall, slender frame and a clean ball-striking technique, there’s something extremely satisfying about the way he glides across the pitch. While he’s evolved into a pure poacher throughout his time at Newcastle, with almost half of his goals falling inside the six-yard box this season, his strike against Liverpool at the start of the month was an emphatic reminder that the spectacular is rarely far away.
What is the most revealing statistic from the first half of the season?
Walid: Nottingham Forest’s defensive solidity has limited the goals they have conceded in the Premier League this season to 19. Only Arsenal (16) and Liverpool (17) have conceded fewer so far.
That is supported by the underlying metrics. Forest have conceded the third-lowest non-penalty expected goals (xG) per game in the league (1.0), again after Liverpool and Arsenal. On top of that, the average quality of shots they have been facing isn’t that high. Forest’s 0.08 non-penalty xG per shot conceded has been the best rate in the Premier League this season, with only Arsenal matching that number.
Raghuraman: Arsenal, thanks to their excellence from set pieces, lead the league in shots from corners with 28 (1.6 per game). Six other teams, including Fulham, Aston Villa (both 27), and Nottingham Forest (20), are within 10 of that tally.
Arsenal are the Premier League’s corner experts but other teams are maximising set pieces too (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
This is a massive difference from last season when Liverpool created 78 shots from corners across the season and were comfortably ahead of second-placed Fulham (54) and the chasing pack. At this time of the season last year, Liverpool had generated 39 shots from corners after 19 matches (2.1 per game) and were already 15 ahead of Brighton and Luton Town, joint-second on 24.
A league-wide recognition of the advantages that can be gained from attacking and defending corners (and set pieces overall) seems to have contributed to the reduced disparity.
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Harris: Manchester City’s shocking downturn in form has been well-documented, but the extent of the numbers still takes some getting used to. Guardiola’s side are conceding Opta-defined Big Chances at a rate of almost three a game, and have already passed their season tallies from four of the last six seasons.
Many of their defensive woes stem from counter-attacks, easily overrun in midfield without the instinctive positioning and duel-winning abilities of Rodri. As we can see from the chart below, no team has conceded more chances from fast breaks, with only Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham — similarly chaotic on transitions this season — running them close.
And what about a misleading stat from the season so far?
Raghuraman: Wolves have the seventh-highest goals total so far with 29, just one less than Manchester City and Newcastle United. But their xG (expected goals, the number of goals a team is expected to score based on the quality of their chances) of 18.8 is the fifth worst, with their overperformance of 10.2 some distance ahead of Tottenham in second with 5.6.
Matheus Cunha, who scored an ‘olimpico’ against Manchester United on Boxing Day to add to a few other fantastic low-xG strikes, is a key reason. The number of goals scored suggests Wolves have an attack that is good enough to finish in the top 10 but their defending under former manager Gary O’Neil has plunged them into the relegation fight. If new boss Vitor Pereira can maintain his good start — and Cunha’s form — they should be fine, though.
Is Matheus Cunha’s scoring rate sustainable? (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Give us one prediction for the second half of the season
Walid: Things will improve for Manchester United. The performances against Bournemouth and Wolves weren’t as good as the defeat against Tottenham and the victory in the Manchester derby, but there are definite signs of what Ruben Amorim wants to do on and off the ball. Fixing how they defend set pieces is an important task, though, because that issue has cancelled all the positives from their performances under Amorim so far.
Ruben Amorim has endured a difficult start to life at Manchester United (Naomi Baker/Getty Images)
Raghuraman: My bold pre-season prediction (which Thom concurred with) was for Forest to finish in the top 10 — but even I did not foresee the kind of form they have shown. I think they will get UEFA Conference League football next season at the very least. Additionally, I think one of Manchester United or Tottenham will end the season with a trophy, but both will finish outside the top seven.
Harris: If Manchester City can ease their fitness issues at centre-back and get the likes of John Stones and Ruben Dias back playing regularly, then Josko Gvardiol has a chance of hitting 10 goals this season. He took five shots and hit the post against Everton, flicked a great chance over the bar at Villa Park, and squandered two big chances in the opening 20 minutes against Forest, all from thundering runs forward from full-back.
(Top photos: AP and Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson)
