ATLANTA — Arizona State is the largest underdog of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, but the Sun Devils have no intention of being deferential to big, bad Texas.
Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s team has talked a big game, from Sam Leavitt vowing to prove why he’s a better quarterback than Quinn Ewers to running back Cam Skattebo declaring “there’s nobody out there that can stop me.”
But Dillingham, 34, isn’t overreacting or losing sleep over it. He likes his team’s confidence.
“Our players are just being themselves,” Dillingham said Tuesday. “A lot of times there’s a lot of ‘How are you supposed to talk to the media, what are you supposed to say,’ and I just firmly believe in say what you believe. And I’m not going to try to prevent our players from saying what they believe.
“If you’re a competitor and you don’t believe you’re the best, are you really a competitor?”
That belief is fueled by the fact that this Arizona State team was picked to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 in the preseason yet won the conference to earn its first Playoff berth. But that doesn’t change the tall task ahead for the No. 4 seed Sun Devils, who will face the No. 5 seed Longhorns on Wednesday in the Peach Bowl. Texas is better and more talented than any squad Arizona State has seen this season.
The winner of this game advances to the Cotton Bowl, where it will play Ohio State or Oregon on Jan. 10.
What’s at stake for Arizona State?
Dillingham has admitted the Sun Devils have been playing with house money since reaching bowl eligibility on Nov. 2. He knows they’ll never overachieve more than they have this season. Their improbable CFP run and strong finish have shown what is possible in the desert. Fans have waited nearly 30 years for this moment. It’s been a tremendous story.
Even if they lose, there’s not much downside for the Sun Devils — unless they get routed. The CFP social media police (and at least one SEC head coach) are quick to call out pretenders. Arizona State needs to prove it belongs on college football’s biggest stage. — Haller
What’s at stake for Texas?
The Longhorns are fixated on winning a national championship. That has been coach Steve Sarkisian’s stated goal from the start of this season, and this is merely the next step in that journey after a 38-24 first-round win over Clemson. Texas expects to win on Wednesday; a loss here would be a massive disappointment. — Khan
Three players to watch for Arizona State
1. QB Sam Leavitt. Usually, Skattebo would top this list, but Leavitt’s confidence pushes him up a notch. His promise to prove he’s the best quarterback on the field drew national attention. As The Athletic’s Freshman All-America selection at quarterback, Leavitt doesn’t need to talk a big game — his performance says plenty. He can beat teams with his arm or his legs. He throws well on the run. But this is how Leavitt motivates himself. He has felt he’s had something to prove all season, and he’ll get a big opportunity against Texas.
2. RB Cam Skattebo. The hard-running senior needs 75 rushing yards to break Eno Benjamin’s single-season school record of 1,642. Skattebo needs to reach that mark and do much, much more against Texas. It’s hard to see a way for Arizona State to win without a major contribution from its lead back. Skattebo doesn’t have to do it all on the ground — with 37 catches for 506 yards, he can factor into the passing game as well. The Sun Devils just have to find a way to get the ball in his hands.
3. DB Xavion Alford. To win, Arizona State needs to rattle Ewers. In the Longhorns’ only losses, the Texas quarterback made mistakes under pressure from Georgia’s defense, taking a combined 11 sacks and throwing three picks. A first-team All-Big 12 selection, Alford leads a defense that gets contributions from many areas.
Three players to watch for Texas
1. TE Gunnar Helm: The senior has become the most valuable passing game target for Ewers. He leads the team with 55 receptions and has been a steady presence over the middle of the field, in the red zone and as a blocker. He has also dazzled with his athleticism at times, hurdling defenders when in the open field.
2. DB Jahdae Barron: The Thorpe Award winner has a knack for finding the ball or the ballcarrier. He leads the Longhorns in interceptions (five) and pass breakups (11) and has lined up at nine positions across defense and special teams this year, according to Pro Football Focus, including outside cornerback, the slot, in the box and at safety.
3. OT Trevor Goosby: The redshirt freshman could get the start at right tackle for injured starter Cam Williams, who is trending toward being a game-time decision. Goosby has played a lot lately and played well, finishing the Texas A&M game and starting the SEC championship at left tackle for Kelvin Banks then finishing the Clemson game for Williams. Of the 255 offensive line snaps Goosby has taken this year, 197 have come in the last three games.
Arizona State’s key to the game
Arizona State will need to establish Skattebo. But before that, the Sun Devils will need to settle their nerves. This is nothing new for Texas, which played in last season’s CFP and has already advanced in this season’s event. Arizona State hasn’t played on this kind of stage in decades. Perhaps worse: The Sun Devils haven’t played in 25 days. Will they be rusty? Nervous? A big play in the opening minutes, such as a turnover or a Skattebo explosive, would help Arizona State embrace the moment and crush the nerves. — Haller
Texas’ key to the game
Finish drives. When the Longhorns have gotten themselves into trouble, it has been because of turnovers and stalled drives in the red zone. During their 6-0 start, the Longhorns scored touchdowns on 78.8 percent of their red zone trips, 10th-best in the FBS. Since then, Texas has scored touchdowns on just 51.6 percent of red zone trips (108th in the FBS). The Longhorns showed slight improvement in their first-round win over Clemson, scoring three touchdowns on five red zone trips, but they settled for a field goal and turned it over on downs in the other two. — Khan
Predictions
Texas 34, Arizona State 16: The Sun Devils are not just “happy to be here,” but there’s definitely a “happy to be here” vibe. In Year 2 under Dillingham, they’re well ahead of schedule, a program on the rise. But they’re about to face a program that’s already there. The Longhorns look like a team with unfinished business. If Arizona State can’t find a way to free Skattebo, it could be a long afternoon. — Haller
Texas 42, Arizona State 17: Remember the Longhorns’ dominant win over Oklahoma State in the 2023 Big 12 championship? This game has the potential to follow a similar script. Arizona State’s offensive strength — running the ball with Skattebo — runs right up against what Texas does best defensively: stopping the run. Only two players this season have rushed for more than 100 yards in a game against Texas (Florida’s Ja’Kobi Jackson and Colorado State’s Justin Marshall), and both did it in blowout losses to the Longhorns. If Texas stifles Skattebo early, the game could get out of hand in short order. — Khan
(Top illustration photos: Sam Hodde, Butch Dill / Getty Images)
