Jorge Alcala’s seventh-inning implosion Sunday afternoon put a screeching halt to what looked likely to be a Minnesota Twins four-game road sweep of the Texas Rangers, but they still managed to take three of four from the reigning World Series champions to sit 16 games above .500 at 70-54.
Despite the ugly series-ending loss, the Twins’ playoff odds are over 90 percent thanks to the combination of cutting the Cleveland Guardians’ lead in the American League Central to two games and being 4 1/2 games clear of a playoff spot in the wild-card race.
Since stumbling out of the gates at 7-13, the Twins have MLB’s best record at 63-41, as they responded to four terrible weeks by playing at a 100-win pace for the next four months. They’re just three games behind the AL’s best record.
It’s a credit to the Twins’ organizational depth, as well as Rocco Baldelli’s managing, that they’re chugging right along and even picking up speed despite ownership slashing payroll, offseason and trade deadline inactivity and the seemingly annual rash of injuries to star players.
Let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your minds about a second-place team currently holding the AL’s second wild-card spot.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Will the Twins beat their preseason over/under of 85 1/2 wins? — Kevin H.
Easily.
With 38 games remaining, the Twins (70-54) need to finish 16-22 to beat their preseason over/under of 85 1/2 wins. That’s equivalent to going 68-94 for a full season, which would be one of the league’s worst records.
My guess is the Twins will hit the over with at least a week to spare, which is exactly what happened last season.
What did Rocco Baldelli see in spring training to make him correctly think Carlos Santana could perform this well as an everyday player? — Isaac K.
Baldelli talked up Carlos Santana all spring training, making it clear he saw the 38-year-old as more than a part-time player. The manager praised his switch-hitting ability, disciplined plate approach and clubhouse vibe, and regularly referred to his defense as underrated and Gold Glove-caliber. Baldelli also stood by those assessments when Santana got off to a brutal start in April.
Santana hit .141 in his first 20 games. Since then, he’s batted .263/.350/.490 over 95 games, leading the Twins in homers (18), extra-base hits (38), RBIs (52), fWAR (2.9) and Win Probability Added (1.71) in that four-month span. He also leads all first basemen with 13 Outs Above Average and, to my eyes at least, is the Twins’ best-fielding first baseman since Doug Mientkiewicz.
Most of the Twins’ payroll-trimming offseason moves haven’t paid off, but signing Santana to a one-year, $5.25 million deal a week before the start of spring training is one of the best free-agent bargains in team history.
SANTANA TIES THE GAME IN THE 9TH#MNTwins | #MLB pic.twitter.com/x7hFcF1rEW
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) August 18, 2024
What is your opinion of Baldelli’s managing skills? — David B.
I’m of the opinion that Baldelli is a solidly above-average manager and, at just 42 years old, he could have a decades-long managing career ahead of him if that’s the path he wants to take.
That’s subjective, of course, but I’ve covered the team for nearly his entire tenure, and have gotten ample opportunities to discuss his in-game tactics, lineup construction, bullpen strategy and behind-the-scenes approach with Baldelli and his players. He’s generally well respected by managerial peers, non-Minnesota media members and current and former players.
And all of that is backed up by his results. In six seasons under Baldelli, the Twins rank eighth out of 30 teams in wins despite ranking in the bottom third of the league in payroll. They’re on track for a fourth playoff berth in his six years, he managed their first winning playoff series in two decades and his career .535 winning percentage is the second-best in team history.
If the Twins were to ever let Baldelli go, I have little doubt he could quickly get another managing gig.
With the expectation that Joe Ryan’s season is done, who starts Game 3 in a potential playoff series? — Mark R.
Right now? Simeon Woods Richardson, who stepped into a rotation spot in mid-April and hasn’t looked back, significantly outperforming expectations with a 3.77 ERA in 21 starts as a 23-year-old rookie.
David Festa, Zebby Matthews and Louie Varland have six weeks to make a case, and Chris Paddack looms as another option if he can get healthy with enough time remaining to build back up to a starter’s workload.
Are there any veteran starting pitchers left for the Twins to sign after Rich Hill went to Boston? — Jared P.
Not really, and even if there were another 40-something veteran looking to join a contender down the stretch, the Twins would be better off rolling with the young arms: Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and Varland. There’s risk in that, but they’ve also already shown undeniable upside above and beyond what can be found on the free-agent scrap heap in late August.
This is going to be a huge test for the Twins’ long-awaited pitching pipeline, and the fate of this season may be determined by whether the young starters now filling 60 percent of the rotation will sink or swim. They’re not exactly Katie Ledecky so far, but they’ve definitely been staying afloat and out-pitching plenty of veterans. It’s been fun to watch.
How has Sonny Gray looked since leaving the Twins? — Heather D.
Sonny Gray had a great first six weeks with the St. Louis Cardinals, but he’s been mediocre since then with a 4.78 ERA in his past 18 starts. That includes allowing 17 homers in 105 innings during that stretch, more than double the number of homers (8) he allowed all of last season with the Twins. He has a 5.50 ERA with 10 homers allowed in six starts since the All-Star break.
Gray has a 3.91 ERA in 135 2/3 innings overall in the first season of a three-year, $75 million deal. And for all the 2023 talk about Gray wanting and/or “deserving” to stay in games longer, this season’s 5.9 innings per start with the Cardinals is nearly identical to last year’s 5.8 innings per start with the Twins and his career mark of 5.8 innings per start.
Twins fans will likely get a first-hand look at Gray this weekend at Target Field with the Cardinals in town for a three-game series. He’s scheduled to start the middle game in what’s currently slated to be a fun Saturday night matchup against Pablo López.
(For those also curious about Kenta Maeda: He has a 6.18 ERA in the first season of a two-year, $24 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, recently getting demoted to the bullpen.)
Are there any additional pitching prospects fans should have an eye on as potential arms for 2025? — Mike W.
Here’s why Twins fans should finally be encouraged by the state of the pitching pipeline: Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and Varland are contributing now, and there’s more coming soon.
Andrew Morris (No. 11 on my midseason Twins prospect list) was recently promoted to Triple-A St. Paul amid a breakout season that would be getting more attention if not for Matthews’ even bigger breakout. Morris has a 2.16 ERA across three levels, with just four homers allowed and a 111-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 108 1/3 innings.
Even after losing Morris, the Double-A rotation features Marco Raya (No. 7), C.J. Culpepper (No. 14) and Cory Lewis (No. 18), each of whom could be 2025 factors. And several Twins officials have been touting oft-injured 2022 second-round pick Connor Prielipp as a potential 2025 bullpen option now that he’s healthy again.
Success is never guaranteed with pitching prospects, and injuries and stalled development will likely thin the herd, but it’s been a long time since the Twins had this many quality young arms in upper levels of the organization. What we’re seeing now could be just the beginning.
Andrew Morris was absolutely dominant in his longest start for the @WindSurgeICT😤
7 IP / 2 H / 0 R / 1 BB / 9 K
His ranks amongst 131 Double-A pitchers (min. 250 BF):
FIP – 1st (2.20)🥇
wOBA – 2nd (.233)🥈
OPS – 2nd (.514)🥈
ERA – 3rd (1.90)🥉#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/tEnAw1ugY7— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 8, 2024
When did the Twins’ farm system last rank this highly? — Derek H.
While the Twins’ young pitching is as strong as it’s been in a long time, the strength of their farm system remains hitting, led by high-upside position players Walker Jenkins (No. 1 on my midseason list), Brooks Lee (No. 2), Emmanuel Rodriguez (No. 3) and Luke Keaschall (No. 6), as well as last month’s first-round pick, Kaelen Culpepper (No. 8).
MLB.com recently ranked the Twins’ farm system at No. 2 out of 30 teams, and it was also ranked No. 3 by Baseball America and No. 4 by ESPN.
This is as high as the Twins’ farm system has ranked since 2015, when their top prospects were Byron Buxton, Miguel Sanó and José Berríos, and other future big-league regulars in the group included Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Taylor Rogers, Mitch Garver, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May.
GO DEEPER
Twins midseason top 20 prospects: Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez lead farm system on the rise
What would be a reasonable trade return for Byron Buxton? — Hockey J.
Buxton has a full no-trade clause and a family of five that likes it here.
He’s also been the Twins’ second-best player this season and one of the top five center fielders in baseball, according to WAR, batting .275/.334/.528 in 90 games with great defense at a premium position. Based on the standard WAR valuation, he’s already produced $25.6 million of on-field value for the Twins while earning a $15 million salary.
Injuries are always frustrating, and a Buxton-like career full of them often negatively warps how a player is perceived, but talk of trading him is likely misguided and almost definitely moot.
Any chance the Twins bring up DaShawn Keirsey if Byron Buxton misses extended time? — Derek N.
I’m a DaShawn Keirsey believer, in the sense that I think he can be a useful backup outfielder in the majors and ranked him No. 29 on my annual Twins preseason top-40 prospects list.
He’s extremely fast and a legit defensive center fielder, and he’s improved enough offensively the past two years to hit .273/.360/.430 with 14 homers in 129 games at Triple-A St. Paul. As a speedy left-handed hitter with solid high-minors production, Keirsey has a classic fourth-outfielder skill set and the 27-year-old warrants an opportunity in the majors somewhere.
However, the Twins seemingly disagree. Not only have they not called him up despite plenty of injuries to outfielders the past two seasons — turning to a total of nine other center fielders during that time — but they also didn’t even add Keirsey to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft last winter coming off something of a breakthrough year.
Get up there DaShawn Keirsey!!🪽
Named the 2023 Twins @MiLB Defensive Outfielder of the Year, the CF continues to flash the leather in 2024💥#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/v9yLx4i5pg
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) April 18, 2024
What does the Twins’ starting outfield look like in 2025 with Max Kepler as a free agent? — Sean M.
I’m assuming Kepler will sign elsewhere as a free agent and next season’s Opening Day outfield will probably be Buxton flanked by Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner (assuming the Twins are facing a right-handed pitcher).
Rodriguez is a consensus top-30 prospect and might have played his way into their Opening Day outfield mix if not for hand injuries sidelining him for much of the Double-A season. As is, the 21-year-old seems likely to start 2025 in St. Paul, making him a midseason call-up option.
If you had to choose one Twins position player to convert to a pitcher, who would it be? — Anthony P.
Wallner, definitely. He was a semi-regular college reliever in his first two years at Southern Mississippi, posting a 4.91 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings before becoming a full-time hitter. And he’s averaged 94.4 mph on his competitive throws from the outfield this season, ranking in the 98th percentile among MLB outfielders.
Matt “The Shohei Ohtani of Forest Lake” Wallner would be a pretty catchy nickname if he didn’t already have a great one in “Cement Bones.”
(Photo of Rocco Baldelli and Carlos Santana: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
