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The Minnesota Vikings did what they needed to do to set up a winner-take-all Week 18 showdown with the Detroit Lions. By dispatching the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, the Vikings climbed to 14-2 and are poised to face the Lions next week with the NFC North title and, more importantly, the conference’s top seed on the line. The winner, of course, gets the coveted first-round bye, while the loser will have to go on the road for a wild-card playoff game.
Meanwhile, in the AFC, there isn’t much intrigue left — at least not at the top. The Kansas City Chiefs locked up the No. 1 seed with a win over the Steelers on Christmas, while the Buffalo Bills secured the No. 2 seed by trouncing the New York Jets on Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens and Steelers are still battling for the AFC North crown and the No. 3 seed, while the AFC South champion Houston Texans are locked into the No. 4 position. As for the wild-card race, the Denver Broncos can clinch the final spot with a win next week over a Chiefs team that will likely be resting its starters. However, if they lose, the Cincinnati Bengals or Miami Dolphins could still sneak in.
Here’s a closer look at where things stand with only the Monday night matchup (Detroit at San Francisco) remaining in Week 17.
Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock.
AFC playoff picture
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 17 result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
*–1 |
15-1 |
W vs. PIT |
|
|
z–2 |
13-3 |
W vs. NYJ |
|
|
x–3 |
11-5 |
W vs. HOU |
|
|
z–4 |
9-7 |
L vs. BAL |
|
|
x–5 |
10-6 |
L vs. KC |
|
|
x–6 |
10-6 |
W vs. NE |
|
|
7 |
9-7 |
L vs. CIN |
x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed
The Chiefs secured the No. 1 seed for the fourth time in the Patrick Mahomes era (2018, 2020, 2022, 2024), but they’ve only won the Super Bowl in one of those previous occasions (2022). They rested their starters in the 2020 regular-season finale, which was the only prior instance when the top seed had been locked up early. There’s an obvious merit to doing so with Mahomes recovering from a high ankle sprain. With the Bills securing the No. 2 seed, it’s worth noting the Chiefs were 7-0 against the Texans, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos and Bengals this season — six potential divisional-round opponents. (They could also see the Dolphins. Mahomes is 3-0 in his career against them, including a playoff victory last season.)
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 100% | To win Super Bowl: 24%
The Bills have locked up the No. 2 seed, so they will likely use the regular-season finale against the Patriots as something of a bye week by resting their stars. There’s a possible added benefit to that strategy for the Patriots, who just took control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. If they get it, they could put it up for auction to a QB-desperate team.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 9.2%
RIDICULOUS.
📺: @paramountplus & @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/ny1NfvUYnJ
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 29, 2024
The Ravens will wrap up the No. 3 seed with a win against the Browns or a Steelers loss to the Bengals. If the Ravens take care of business, it’s fitting they’re on a collision course with the Bills in the divisional round. MVP favorites Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen met once before in the postseason, with the Bills winning 17-3 four years ago. There are some MVP stakes on the line next week, too, with the Ravens likely needing to start Jackson and the Bills hypothetically resting Allen.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 8.3%
The Texans have lost two in a row and are coming off a low point with an embarrassing 31-2 home defeat to the Ravens. They’re leaking with losses in five of eight, and there’s going to be a mad dash for to the No. 5 seed to draw the Texans in the playoff opener. But maybe there’s hope in Houston, as the Texans have only gone one-and-done in two of their seven playoff appearances.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2%
The Steelers’ three-game losing streak is the longest among teams currently in the playoff field, and things have crumbled on both sides of the ball. They’ve been outscored 90-40 over that stretch. Sure, they’ve played some of the best teams in the league (Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs) during the skid, but that’s more ominous about their chances in January than an excuse for a slump in December. With a dangerous Bengals team on tap next week, the Steelers’ freefall is in danger of continuing.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.9%
The Chargers clinched a playoff spot with their Saturday demolition of the Patriots. Here’s a dream scenario for coach Jim Harbaugh’s squad: If they beat the Raiders Week 18, and the Steelers fall to the Bengals, the Chargers will set up a trip to Houston with a chance to get a third crack at the Chiefs in the divisional round. The Chargers were swept by Kansas City this season, but they only lost both games by a combined nine points and would be entering Arrowhead on a four-game winning streak with the Chiefs not having played a meaningful game in three weeks.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100%| To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.7%
The Broncos put up a heck of a fight Saturday during a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Bengals, but their season is now on the line in the finale against the Chiefs. The Broncos are still in with a win. But if they lose, and the Bengals (vs. the Steelers) or Dolphins (at the Jets) win, the Broncos will be out and would finish the season on a three-game losing streak.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 77.2% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.2%
• Miami Dolphins (8-8)
• Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Eliminated
• Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
• New York Jets (4-12)
• Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
• Cleveland Browns (3-13)
• Tennessee Titans (3-13)
• New England Patriots (3-13)
NFC playoff picture
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 17 result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
x–1 |
14-2 |
W vs. GB |
|
|
z–2 |
13-3 |
W vs. DAL |
|
|
z–3 |
10-6 |
W vs. AZ |
|
|
4 |
9-7 |
W vs. CAR |
|
|
x–5 |
13-2 |
TBD vs. SF |
|
|
x–6 |
11-5 |
W vs. ATL |
|
|
x–7 |
11-5 |
L vs. MIN |
x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed
The Vikings served up another defensive masterpiece Sunday to stifle the surging Packers, and they’ve temporarily taken over the No. 1 seed, pending the result of Monday’s Lions-49ers game. At minimum, the Vikings visit the Lions next week with the top seed on the line. There’s been so much attention on the Lions and Eagles this season, but the Vikings have won nine in a row and could steal home-field advantage at the buzzer.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 40.3% | To win Super Bowl: 10.7%
GO DEEPER
NFL Week 17 takeaways: Are Vikings on the Lions’, Eagles’ level? Should Cowboys keep McCarthy?
The Eagles locked up the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed Sunday by blowing out the Cowboys without even needing quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was out with a concussion. Now the focus is on running back Saquon Barkley, as he’ll enter Week 18 with 2,005 rushing yards — 101 short of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season record — and he can do it against his former team. The RB eclipsed that mark 11 times this season, including 176 yards earlier this season against the Giants. It’d be a huge honor for Barkley and that offensive line, but there’s a mountain of risk that comes with that pursuit. If Barkley goes down in a meaningless game, Eagles fans won’t ever forgive coach Nick Sirianni.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 9.3%
After quarterback Matthew Stafford’s high-level play rescued the Rams from a 1-4 start, it was the defense that’s vaulted them to the NFC West title. The Rams have won their last three games by a combined score of 44-24. If they beat the Seahawks next week, the Rams will lock up the No. 3 seed, which would be an impressive accomplishment after failing to win a playoff game in the two seasons since winning the Super Bowl.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.7%
The Bucs will lock up the NFC South with a win against the Saints or a Falcons loss to the Panthers. Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen should be sending a holiday card to Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez, who starred for him when he was the OC at Kentucky. Rodriguez scored the Commanders’ final touchdown of the fourth quarter and made a key 12-yard catch in overtime in their 30-24 victory Sunday against the Falcons, who would have kept their NFC South lead with a win.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 87.8% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.6%
The Lions have a meaningless NFC Championship Game rematch Monday night against the 49ers. Regardless of the result, the Lions and Vikings will square off next week with the No. 1 seed on the line. Consider the stakes, as there’s a real scenario where the team with the third-best record in the NFL has to open the playoffs on the road as the NFC’s No. 5 seed.
Remaining schedule: at 49ers,
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 59.7% | To win Super Bowl: 14.1%
Quarterback Jayden Daniels has shown veteran moxie during his last two game-winning drives against the Eagles and Falcons to secure the Commanders’ first playoff appearance since the 2020 season. They’ve won four consecutive games after that disconcerting three-game losing streak, and the Commanders will be aiming for their first playoff victory in 19 years. The Commanders will take the No. 6 seed with a win or a Packers loss.
Remaining schedule: at Cowboys
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 3%
The Packers delivered an uncharacteristic dud for three and a half quarters Sunday in Minnesota, although the Vikings deserve credit for that. The loss may come back to bite the Packers, too, if they can’t reclaim the No. 6 seed because there’s now a strong chance they’ll open the postseason against the Eagles, who beat the Packers in Week 1. They likely would have preferred to see the Rams, whom they beat in Week 5.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 5.8%
• Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated
• Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
• Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
• Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
• New Orleans Saints (5-11)
• Chicago Bears (4-12)
• Carolina Panthers (4-12)
• New York Giants (3-13)
(Photo of Justin Jefferson: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
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