We’re past the midway mark of the season, which means we can’t just hand-wave away any surprises with a dismissive “too early.” That’s bad news for people like me who make preseason predictions because it means we might have to accept we were wrong. Key word: might.
For example, back before opening night, I grouped the league into four divisions, including one for the true contenders. Of those eight teams, only three — Edmonton, Vegas and Florida — have appeared in the top five since early December. That’s partly because we’ve had teams like Washington and Winnipeg force themselves into weekly spots. But it’s also because five of my so-called sure things have been varying degrees of disappointments.
Today, let’s run through those five teams I believed in back in October and rank them based on how close they are to reclaiming a spot in my top five.
Bonus five: Sure-thing contenders who haven’t been
5. New York Rangers — I wrote: “Even if you forecast a step back from last year, which you probably should, they’ve still got enough star power to waltz into the playoffs.” They looked like they’ve been waltzing alright, but not toward the postseason. They’ve been better lately, but at this point, the second half is about making the playoffs, not being among the best of the best.
4. Tampa Bay Lightning — I wrote: “It’s felt like the clock was ticking on the Lighting for a few years now, and in the last two seasons they haven’t made it to 100 points or won a round … but there’s enough history here that I’d rather be a year too late on ruling them out than too soon.” I guess that holds up OK. The Lightning seemed to be emerging as legitimate threats a few weeks ago, at which point I wrote about them playing well and then they immediately lost four straight. What can I tell you, I have that effect on teams. At this point, they look like a safe playoff bet, but one that will probably start on the road against the Panthers or Leafs.
3. Carolina Hurricanes — I wrote: “I think they’re safe enough that they can spend 60 games or so figuring out where the weaknesses are and then aggressively addressing them at the deadline.” Yep, that would be the optimist’s view right now. The Hurricanes actually briefly held the one-spot in the rankings back in November, right around the time their record peaked at 16-5-1, but they have won just 10 of 22 since then. Your view of them as a serious contender might be tied to how seriously you take the Capitals as a Metro heavyweight. For now, eventually getting Freddie Andersen back could have an impact.
2. Colorado Avalanche — I wrote: “We don’t need to overthink things … The Central is a tough path, but Colorado is clearly one of the league’s eight best teams.” I was more right than I knew about the Central being tough, and that, along with some early-season injuries, has led to the Avs being absent from the top five outside from Week 1. A six-game win streak over the holidays suggested they were back, but they’ve lost three of five since. Still, with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both looking fantastic and Mackenzie Blackwood appearing to solve the goaltending problem, I’d bet on the Avalanche being back in the top five at some point in the second half.
1. Dallas Stars — I wrote: “The Stars figure to go back and forth with the Avalanche for top spot in the Central, and probably meet them in the second round for the right to face the Oilers.” Again, I was sleeping on the Jets and Wild as Central threats. But with a seven-game win streak before last night’s loss, the Stars have been rolling and could absolutely take a spot in this week’s list. They didn’t, barely, but at this rate let’s go ahead and pencil them in for next week.
On to this week’s top five …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
It’s prospect ranking time, as Scott is counting down every team’s list heading into 2025. If you’re a fan of a team that regularly appears in this section, here’s a quick reminder: “Prospects” are young players in your organization you will never see play because they’ll be traded at the deadline for an old guy who isn’t good anymore. But don’t let that stop you from showing up in the comments to loudly accuse Scott, who does this for a living, of having never watched a random AHL guy that you yourself saw get nine minutes in one preseason game three years ago.
5. Florida Panthers (25-15-3, +8 true goals differential*) — They’re the only team that’s been in the top five all season long, but they’re hanging by a thread. As always, we’re trying to do the long-term view here, so record isn’t everything for a team that’s proven over the years that they’re a serious playoff threat. Still, with other teams knocking at the door and just seven wins in their last 14, this spot is probably up for grabs next week.
4. Winnipeg Jets (29-12-3, +48) — Not only is he the runaway leader for the Vezina, you have to respect Connor Hellebuyck’s efficiency in packing all his milestones into one night.
3. Edmonton Oilers (26-13-3, +22) — Narrator voice: It did not actually remain to be seen.
Kane said that when he’s 100 percent healthy, he’ll make himself available to play again.
Whether that’s in the regular season or playoffs remains to be seen. https://t.co/eU8XMBiWw3
— Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) January 10, 2025
So yeah, sounds like we can pencil in Evander Kane for early in the playoffs. One more weapon for a team that already has plenty. Daniel has more on what it could mean for the Oilers’ hopes. (In related news, did you know Kane has led the NHL in postseason penalty minutes three times since 2019? I’m not sure what to do with this information but I thought it was neat.)
2. Washington Capitals (28-10-5, +45) — Is the first half’s biggest surprise starting to wobble? Maybe a bit, as the Capitals haven’t won consecutive games since before the holiday break. They even lost to the Sabres this week, although it was in a shootout so it’s not real. All those early points mean they still have a solid cushion on top of the Metro, and it’s not like the Devils or Hurricanes are red-hot themselves. Still, it will be worth watching them this week as they face the Ducks, Senators and Penguins, three very winnable games.
Also worth keeping in mind:
Interesting situation with first-place Caps, both their goalies pending UFAs in Logan Thompson/Charlie Lindgren. There have been talks with each camp but nothing sounds imminent at the moment. Caps like their tandem for sure. But balancing other key, pending UFAs as well…
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) January 10, 2025
1. Vegas Golden Knights 29-11-3, +34) — (Checks headline on most recent edition of Other Ratings.) “A new No. 1,” you say. Well, not sure I’d call them “new,” but congratulations on coming around to where we’ve already been for a month and counting.
Meanwhile, Pierre sat down with Kelly McCrimmon for a look ahead at the deadline.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Boston Bruins — If you somehow missed the drama in Boston heading into the weekend, let’s get you caught up. On Friday, a Boston radio station broadcast a report that the Bruins’ room is “a disaster” and a feud between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak was at the center of it. That sounded far-fetched, but since we’ve already been through this same basic storyline in Vancouver, you wondered if it would have any legs.
That lasted all of a few hours before Marchand seemed to put the idea to rest:
🎥 Brad Marchand addressed the media following today’s #NHLBruins practice in Florida: pic.twitter.com/vPFfHM1fRv
— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) January 10, 2025
Players have been known to be less-than-honest about this sort of thing — again, see Vancouver — but that’s a pretty emphatic denial, and one that was echoed by Pastrnak later on. So apparently, nothing to see here.
What else, what else … oh right, the results on the ice. They’ve been, shall we say, not great lately, although Saturday’s flukey OT win in Florida snapped a six-game losing streak. That was worse than the stretch that got Jim Montgomery fired, and it’s fair to say any new-coach bounce under Joe Sacco has now abated. The streak dropped the Bruins out of a playoff spot by points percentage, although they’re still right in the wild-card mix alongside (checks standings) pretty much the entire conference.
Still, it’s bad. The question is how bad — is this the sort of midseason slump a team can still recover from, or are we headed for a Rangers-level disaster? That might be up to Don Sweeney, who’s already played his coach card and is now firmly on the hot seat to figure this out. Fluto asked what Sweeney could do, and his answer won’t please Boston fans, because it boils down to “not much.” His big offseason move, the signing of Elias Lindholm to a seven-year deal, hasn’t done as much as hoped to fix their weakness down the middle. Pastrnak’s been merely good instead of great, Marchand is starting to look like a guy who’s 36 and there isn’t enough supporting firepower to cover up for a surprisingly weak season from Jeremy Swayman.
Oh, and there’s little in the way of prospect help on the horizon. Other than all that, going great.
So, are they cooked? That still feels premature, but might not in another week or two. They’ve got Tampa next, then a stretch in which they play the Senators twice in a week, so the wild-card implications are huge. It’s not impossible to imagine the Bruins getting back into this. It’s also not all that hard to see them as sellers by the time the deadline arrives.
So here’s my question to Bruins fans: What do you actually want at this point? Do you still view this team as a Cup contender, or at least worth a playoff run? Or are you getting close to the point where you’d rather close the book on a lost season, focus on moves that would build that underwhelming pipeline back up, and then figure out whether Sweeney should get a chance to fix the mess? Let me know where you’re at in the comments.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
If your team tends to show up in this section, I’d strongly recommend our group effort at naming each team’s biggest disappointment so far this season, if only because it’s a reminder that everybody has regrets. Do they have them as bad as your favorite team? They do not, your team stinks.
5. Seattle Kraken (18-23-3, -15) — With teams like the Habs and Red Wings heating up, we have room for a new entrant in the bottom five. Welcome Seattle, who staked an emphatic claim on a spot by getting their doors kicked in by Detroit yesterday. Granted, Todd McLellan has the Wings looking like the 1996 version these days, but giving up four goals in the first eight minutes is embarrassing. The Kraken have won just three of their last 13 and now find themselves looking up at teams like the Flyers, Blues and Ducks.
4. Nashville Predators (13-22-7, -31) — Tuesday’s loss to the Jets snapped a two-game win streak, which doesn’t sound like much until you remember they haven’t won three in a row since October. Meanwhile, Elliotte Friedman had an interesting update on Ryan O’Reilly and his lack of trade protection.
3. Buffalo Sabres (16-22-5, -15) — Well, things went well for two games and maybe a period or two before it all fell apart against Seattle. That’s progress, I guess. Anyway, go Bills.
2. San Jose Sharks (13-26-6, -40) — They’ve lost 14 of their last 17 games. And maybe more importantly for lottery purposes, all but one of those losses came in regulation. Hey, don’t let the loser point screw up the tank, right?
1. Chicago Blackhawks (14-27-2, -37) — They beat the Avalanche and nearly upset the Oilers, so not a bad week. We also got some interesting insight from Patrick Kane on Connor Bedard.
Not ranked: Columbus Blue Jackets — They’re actually doing this. The Columbus Blue Jackets, a last-place team that lost their best forward to an unimaginable tragedy before the season started, are hanging around the playoff hunt. Not in that fake way of being five points back with six teams to pass, but right there, close enough to hold down a spot heading into the week.
This is a problem for me.
You see, every year when the playoffs start, I write a post ranking every team based on how easy they are to bandwagon. It’s all in good fun, and one of my favorite pieces to write each year. But this year? If the Blue Jackets make the playoffs, what’s even the point? If Columbus makes it to the postseason after everything it’s been through, it might be the most bandwagon-able team in the history of pro sports.
The Johnny Gaudreau tragedy would be enough to ensure that, but it’s only part of the story. Remember, this is a franchise that’s been around for 25 seasons and has only made the playoffs six times. They’ve only won one seven-game series — one! It took the Seattle Kraken two whole years to tie them on the all-time list. Their most iconic franchise player lasted nine seasons before heading off to chase relevance with bigger markets. Their biggest contribution to playoff glory was that stint in which they kept sending star forwards to the Kings.
They’ve been the league’s most forgettable team for decades. And if you’re not rooting for them right now, I’m not even sure what to tell you. As an added bonus, the Blue Jackets have one of the few fan bases that probably wouldn’t even object to some bandwagon love. It would be better than the sneers and eye-rolls they’ve had from the rest of the league for most of their existence.
Honestly, I’m hesitant to even write this sort of stuff, because I’m worried I’ll jinx what’s happening in Columbus right now. They’ve won eight of their last 11, including wins over contenders like the Devils and Hurricanes. A roster built by Jarmo Kekäläinen and supplemented with some smart adds by Don Waddell is rolling. This week serves up the Flyers, Sharks, Rangers and Islanders, all teams looking up at them in the standings. This could actually happen.
Sure, it’s too early, absolutely. The East is crowded and while a lot of us may have been sleeping on this team’s potential, they’re underdogs for a reason. For what it’s worth, Dom’s model has them at just 24 percent odds to make it.
But if they do? Give Dean Evason the Jack Adams. Make Zach Werenski a Norris finalist. And hell, would it be completely crazy to drop a point-per-game Sean Monahan on a few Hart ballots? I don’t know that it would be.
And yeah, go ahead and make this year’s playoff rooting guide rankings three words long. Or maybe scrap it all together. I’ll take that one for the team, as long as you save me a good seat on the bandwagon.
(Photo of Denton Mateychuk celebrating his first NHL goal: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
